WASHINGTON — The United States’ top infectious disease specialist said Sunday that the economy in parts of the country could have a “rolling reentry” as early as next month, provided health authorities can quickly identify and isolate people who will inevitably be infected with the coronavirus.
Dr. Anthony Fauci also said he “can’t guarantee’’ it will be safe to vote in person on Election Day, Nov. 3.
Rather than flipping a switch to reopen the entire country, Fauci said a gradual process will be required, based on the status of the pandemic in various parts of the nation and the availability of rapid, widespread testing. Once the number of people who are seriously ill sharply declines, officials can begin to “think about a gradual reentry of some sort of normality, some rolling reentry,’’ he said.
In some places, he said, that might occur as soon as May. “We are hoping that, at the end of the month, we could look around and say, OK, is there any element here that we can safely and cautiously start pulling back on? If so, do it. If not, then just continue to hunker down,’’ Fauci said.
Whenever restrictions ease, Fauci said, “we know that there will be people who will be getting infected. I mean, that is just reality.”
Social-distancing guidelines imposed by President Trump are set to expire April 30.
Trump is eager to restart the economy, which has stalled because most Americans are under orders to “stay at home” to help slow the virus’s spread.
But governors will have a lot to say about when to ease restrictions in their states, and the leaders of Maryland and New Jersey indicated they are not likely to do so until widespread testing is available.
“The question is how fast we can get enough tests up to speed in order to help us get to the point where we are able to do all of those things,’’ Republican Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland said. He said he has set no “artificial deadline.’’
Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey, a Democrat, said the risks of reopening too soon are dangerously high. “And I fear, if we open up too early, and we have not sufficiently made that health recovery and cracked the back of this virus, that we could be pouring gasoline on the fire, even inadvertently,’’ he said.
Increased testing would allow the authorities to identify, isolate, and trace the contacts of people who are newly infected, Fauci said.
Trump continues to deny problems with the coronavirus testing that’s available, including shortages and long wait times for people to learn results. He’s also resistant to the idea of more widespread testing, saying last week that “it’s unnecessary” and that “vast areas of our country don’t need this.”
Other scientists have echoed Fauci’s call for a gradual reopening, with restrictions that can be ramped up or down.
Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the University of Washington institute that created widely cited projections of virus-related deaths, said studies show that lifting restrictions at the end of this month would lead to a rebound in the number of infections. Because states don’t really have the capability to deal with a big volume of new cases, he said, “by July or August we could be back in the same situation we are now.”
Officials need to examine whether a state has reached its peak and then allow several weeks of continued closures until fuller testing and contact tracing can be put in place before making a decision, Murray said. But even then, he said, states would have to be mindful of putting in place controls to stem the “importation” of the virus from other states.
“Maybe some states can open up mid-May, but we have to be very careful and make sure we don’t lose all the effort the American people have put into closures by premature opening,” he said.
Speaking about the prospects of Americans physically going to polling places in November, Fauci said he hopes that voting in person can take place.
“I believe that if we have a good, measured way of rolling into this, steps toward normality, that we hope, by the time we get to November, that we will be able to do it in a way which is the standard way,” he said..
“However — and I don’t want to be the pessimistic person — there is always the possibility, as we get into next fall, and the beginning of early winter, that we could see a rebound,’’ he said.
The United States has the most confirmed cases and deaths of any nation, more than 530,000 and 20,600, respectively, according to Johns Hopkins University. In New York, the number of deaths has topped 700 a day for six straight days, but the increase in hospitalizations is slowing, a hopeful sign.
Fauci was on CNN’s “State of the Union.’’ Hogan appeared on ABC’s ”This Week.’’ Murray was on CBS’ “Face the Nation.’’ Murphy was on CNN and CBS.