How useful is a ‘Union Leader’ endorsement in N.H.?

Chris Christie.Cheryl Senter/AP

The big news out of New Hampshire this week was the endorsement of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by the state's largest newspaper, the New Hampshire Union Leader of Manchester. The Union Leader is a leading conservative voice in the state, for sure, and its endorsement is much coveted by Republican candidates. But how much sway do its endorsements have? Here's a look at the Republican presidential candidates endorsed by the Union Leader in each of the past 10 contested races, followed by the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary that year and the eventual Republican presidential nominee.

The Union Leader's candidate doesn't always win — but a 2012 analysis by Nate Silver in The New York Times suggested that the Union Leader endorsement has, in recent contests, often acted as a leading indicator: The endorsed candidates generally did bestter than polling suggested. Does the Union Leader nod help these candidates, or does it simply reflect where voters were otherwise headed? Either way, it's encouraging news for Christie.

What does the Union Leader's endorsement mean for candidates?

Year	Endorsed by the Union Leader	Winner of the GOP primary	Eventual Republican nominee
2012	Newt Gingrich	Mitt Romney	Mitt Romney
2008	John McCain	John McCain	John McCain
2000	Steve Forbes	John McCain	George W. Bush
1996	Pat Buchanan	Pat Buchanan	Bob Dole
1992	Pat Buchanan	George H. W. Bush	George H. W. Bush
1988	Pete du Pont	George H. W. Bush	George H. W. Bush
1980	Ronald Reagan	Ronald Reagan	Ronald Reagan
1976	Ronald Reagan	Gerald Ford	Gerald Ford
1972	John Ashbrook	Richard Nixon	Richard Nixon
1968	Richard Nixon	Richard Nixon	Richard Nixon

SOURCE: Sources