EVAN HOROWITZ | QUICK STUDY
There are only two ways for Donald Trump to win Tuesday’s election: either the polls have to be wrong, or they have to be very wrong. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton will become our next president.
As we follow the fast-unfolding results Tuesday night, then, that’s the thing to watch for: signs that the polls we’ve been obsessively watching were actually inaccurate.
It shouldn’t take long to find out either. Trump’s only viable path to victory involves off-the-mark polling and surprise wins along the eastern seaboard and into the Midwest — all places that report results relatively early, beginning around 7 p.m.
So here’s a proposal for your election-watching evening. Eat an early dinner, prepare appropriate libations for triumph or defeat, and settle in front of the TV to watch for the unanticipated. To capture the Oval Office, Trump needs either a few substantial upsets, or a legion of little ones.
Now, some prognosticators still give Trump decent odds. Notably, Nate Silver’s time-tested team at fivethirtyeight.com suggests he has a roughly one-in-three shot of winning the presidency. But that’s not because they think his numbers look particularly good; it’s because polls have proved wrong in the past — underestimating President Obama’s strength in 2012 — and they’re worried about the possibility that they may be misleading again this time.
But here’s why the race is still Clinton’s to lose: When you count up all the states where Clinton holds a clear polling advantage, that total already gives her 268 electoral votes — just two shy of the 270 she needs to win. And being that close to victory means she can cross the finish line by capturing any of the harder-fought states: Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Nevada, or North Carolina.
Flip that around, and you can see Trump’s problem. Whereas Clinton has to win just one of those states, Trump basically needs to win all of them. Or, if he fails to do that, he needs to compensate with an even bigger surprise, capturing one of the state where polls show Clinton well ahead, but where the campaigns have been battling mightily in recent days, including Pennsylvania, Virginia, or Michigan.
So state by state, hour by hour, this is what you need to keep your eyes on:
It did not involve Clydesdales or polar bears or Michael Jordan. It’s an ad for retractable awnings. And it has been seen hundreds of millions of times.Continue reading »
When Cora was acquired in 2005, he entered a clubhouse in a state of unrest. He then became a catalyst for change.Continue reading »
The officer was taken to a local hospital with a gunshot wound described as not life-threatening, police said. A suspect is in custody.Continue reading »
TV critic Matthew Gilbert’s guide to the new shows debuting during television’s peak season.Continue reading »
Lost and alone, Deb made a decision to reclaim the only home she’d ever had, whatever the risk.Continue reading »
The gas lines that wend through the state, beneath city streets, and into people’s homes are overseen by a patchwork of bureaucracies and a regulatory system that largely trusts utility companies to police themselves.Continue reading »
Forward Daulton Hommes became the first player to have consistent one-on-one battles against Hayward, helping the former All-Star prepare for his resurgence.Continue reading »
Gronkowski resisted the trade because he didn’t want to play anywhere except in New England with Tom Brady.Continue reading »