World

Analysis

EU may rebound after Brexit, Trump

LONDON — Europe appears to have gotten used to crises by now. The war in Ukraine, the influx of refugees, and Greece’s debt woes have divided the continent.

Surprisingly, two very different events that are being perceived as catastrophic in Europe could now help glue the political union back together. First, Britain voted to leave the European Union in a decision that was seen as a
watershed moment in Europe’s history and triggered a series of emergency summits.

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Then, Donald Trump was elected US president. Trump has extremely low approval ratings in Europe, and some leading politicians publicly opposed his candidacy. Again, the European Union called for a ‘‘crisis meeting.’’

But it turns out that both Brexit and Trump’s election could actually help save the European Union.

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In five of the union’s six most populous countries, EU approval is on the rise. The only country where support has fallen is Spain. In Britain, a majority of the population would now vote to stay in the European Union, new data by the Bertelsmann Foundation suggest.

So, why is that?

There are two likely explanations: the perception that Britain is failing to make its exit from the EU a success, and fears over President-elect Trump’s reliability as a core economic and military ally. The Bertelsmann poll was conducted before the November US elections, but the outcome might strengthen EU approval in Europe further, particularly in the continent’s east.

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On Wednesday, the British government said it would have to borrow about $72 billion more over the next four years because of the economic fallout of the Brexit vote.

Ahead of the referendum, leading politicians and experts had warned that leaving the EU would leave British households worse off. Despite such warnings, support for Brexit was highest in some of the areas that could now be hardest-hit by the country’s economic woes.

The first signs that Brexit could weaken the appetite in other EU member states to follow Britain emerged days after the referendum at the end of June.

As the British pound dropped to all-time lows, other nations took note. While more than 40 percent of Danes wanted an EU referendum before Britain decided to leave the union, support for such a vote has now declined by nearly 10 percentage points.

Could the British decision glue Europe closer together? Austrians will head to the polls next month to elect a new president, and it is likely that far-right candidate Norbert Hofer could win.

Hofer had previously demanded an EU referendum for Austria. But shortly after the Brexit vote — potentially amid fears that a shift in public opinion would cost him crucial votes — he indicated that being part of the European Union might not be so bad after all. At the moment, Hofer is only in favor of an EU referendum in case the bloc becomes more centralized. A look at opinion polls helps explain what might have caused that change of mind.

The election of Trump has also raised fears in Europe that he could weaken NATO and strengthen cooperation with Russia, which is viewed as increasingly dangerous in EU capitals. Eastern European and Scandinavian nations in particular fear Russia’s army and have so far comforted themselves with the presence of US troops in the region.

Trump, however, has suggested he would only defend countries that allocate a set ratio of their GDP to defense spending. Nearly no EU member state fulfills that criterion.

German President Joachim Gauck this week was among those who have called for the country to focus more on its own security. His words were unusual for a German president: Most of his predecessors had advocated disarmament instead of more military spending. But Trump’s contradictory statements on that matter have raised worries that the United States might no longer be a reliable ally.

It is ironic that 2016, the year that appeared to be the beginning of the EU’s end, could in fact give the union its strongest boost.

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