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Joe Sullivan | Horse Racing

Handicapping the 2015 Kentucky Derby

Dortmund, the second choice at 3-1, is undefeated in six races.Jamie Rhodes/USA Today

A bettor could make a case for 10 horses in this year’s Derby, which makes this a difficult gambling proposition. The favorites are all legitimate, too. The pace — usually hotly contested in the Derby — will be critical, and if it’s too fast, the late runners could take advantage. The favorites seem so talented that the winner probably will come from that group, and it will be the one who has the best trip, not too fast and avoiding traffic.

Here is the field for Saturday’s 141st Kentucky Derby. Post time: 6:34 p.m. (NBC). Weights: 126 pounds. Distance: 1¼ miles. Purse: $2,203,800 if 20 start. First place: $1,443,800. Second place: $400,000. Third place: $200,000. Fourth place: $100,000. Fifth place: $60,000.


2015 Kentucky Derby field
Post Horse Trainer Jockey Odds Comment
1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy Elvis Trujillo 50-1 Undefeated at 2 but hasn't been able to keep it up against the top-class horses as a 3-year-old.
2 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 8-1 Has won four of five lifetime events and has the top jockey/trainer combination in the nation.
3 Materiality Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 12-1 Undefeated in three races with big speed figures but didn't race at age 2, and no horse unraced at 2 has won the Derby since 1882.
4 Tencendur George Weaver Manny Franco 30-1 Has won only once race but was a nice second in the Wood.
5 Danzig Moon Mark Casse Julien Leparoux 30-1 Has only one victory, but this is Canada's leading trainer. Jockey can be inconsistent.
6 Mubtaahij Mike de Kock Christophe Soumillion 20-1 Has won only in Dubai but is 4 for 7. Trainer is from South Africa but has been no worse than second in five starts in North America.
7 SCRATCHED El Kabeir was pulled from the field Friday
8 Dortmund Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 3-1 Undefeated in six races, also in awesome fashion, including a 4 1/4-length victory in the Santa Anita Derby.
9 Bolo Carla Gaines Rafael Bejarano 30-1 Has won only on the grass and futilely chased Dortmund in the last two races.
10 Firing Line Simon Callaghan Gary Stevens 12-1 Coming off a huge 14-length victory in Sunland Derby but chased Dortmund in two other starts in California.
11 SCRATCHED Stanford was pulled from the field on Thursday.
12 SCRATCHED International Star was pulled from the field on Saturday
13 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher Luis Saez 30-1 Won his first three races (one by DQ) but then couldn't compete in the Florida Derby.
14 Keen Ice Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux 50-1 His only victory came last September at Churchill Downs. Couldn't compete with International Star in Louisiana.
15 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin Joel Rosario 15-1 Seemed a cut below the best before he won the Wood Memorial, rallying to a 2-length victory.
16 War Story Tom Amoss Joe Talamo 50-1 Never worse than third in five starts; he'll do his best running late.
17 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas Ramon Vazquez 50-1 Only 1 for 12 lifetime but is trained by one of the all-time masters.
18 American Pharoah Bob Baffert Victor Espinoza 5-2 Has rattled off four impressive victories with big speed figures, then had an eye-popping workout Sunday.
19 Upstart Rick Violette Jr. Jose Ortiz 15-1 Never been out of the money but couldn't get past Materiality in the Florida Derby. Jockey and trainer underrated.
20 Far Right Ron Monquett Mike Smith 30-1 Had two nice wins at Oaklawn Park before being blown away by American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby.
21 Frammento Nick Zito Corey Nakatani 50-1 Was on the also eligible list but needed a scratch to get in. Nakatani is 0-for-17 in Kentucky Derby.
Joe Sullivan/Globe Staff


1. American Pharoah;

2. Frosted;

3. Mubtaahij.

Related coverage:

■  2015 Kentucky Derby could be one of best ever

■  Trainer Todd Pletcher saddles four horses in Kentucky Derby

Joe Sullivan can be reached at jtsullivan@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeSullivan.