Joe Sullivan

Handicapping the 2015 Belmont Stakes

Mubtaahij opened at 10-1 odds for the Belmont Stakes.
Mubtaahij opened at 10-1 odds for the Belmont Stakes.AP
A closer look at the 2015 Belmont Stakes field
Post time: 6:50 p.m. (NBC). Weight: 126 pounds. Distance: 1 1/2 miles. Purse: $1.5 million. First place: $800,000. Second place: $280,000. Third place: $150,000. Fourth place: $100,000. Fifth place: $60,000
Post Horse Trainer Jockey Odds Comment
1 Mubtaahij Mike de Kock Irad Ortiz 10-1 Finished eighth in the Derby; kind of just galloped around, never really accelerating. He's been stabled at Belmont for a month, working steadily but not quickly. Bred to get the mile and half.
2 Tale of Verve Dallas Stewart Gary Stevens 15-1 The second-place finish in the Preakness should be ignored. He won't hit the board in this race.
3 Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 12-1 Futilely chased American Pharoah in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, but then won the Peter Pan at Belmont, so he can't be dismissed.
4 Frammento Nick Zito Mike Smith 30-1 Only one lifetime win and has to have a fast pace, and it's doubtful he'll get it.
5 American Pharoah Bob Baffert Victor Espinoza 3-5 The concern with a Derby and Preakness winner is weariness. Pharoah has gained weight and has had two sensational workouts. He has the look of a Triple Crown winner
6 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin Joel Rosario 5-1 The biggest threat to a Triple Crown. He finished fourth in the Derby, but ran the fastest final quarter mile. He's fresh and has been working well.
7 Keen Ice Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux 20-1 Has won only one race, but is a live long shot. Certainly a horse worth using in exactas and trifectas.
8 Materiality Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 6-1 Never had a chance after missing the break in the Derby and the speed figure guys still obsess over his Florida Derby victory. Very dangerous.

PREDICTION: 1. American Pharoah; 2. Frosted; 3. Mubtaahij

Joe Sullivan can be reached at joseph.sullivan@globe.com.