Where are October’s most dominant pitchers found?

In July, a member of the Mets organization surveyed the baseball landscape and recognized opportunity.

“We just need to hit a little bit,” he said. “If we do, we have the pitching to win it all.”

The Mets tinkered with their lineup alchemy with the midyear acquisitions of Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson to reach the postseason. Meanwhile, the October transformation of Daniel Murphy – who has now homered in six straight playoff games – into Joe Hardy has allowed that vision to come to fruition thanks to the constant: The Mets do indeed have a championship-caliber staff.

Stephen Matz did his part on Wednesday, delivering 4 2/3 innings in which he limited the Cubs to one run, as the Mets swept their way into the World Series with a dominant 8-3 win over Chicago. None of the four Mets starters – 27-year-old Jacob deGrom, 26-year-old Matt Harvey, 24-year-old Matz, or 23-year-old Noah Syndergaard – allowed more than two runs. As a group, they permitted six earned runs in 25 innings, good for a 2.16 ERA. With 26-year-old Jeurys Familia (4 scoreless appearances) behind them in the bullpen, the Mets never trailed in the NLCS.

The display of dominance from New York’s arms raised the question: Where are October’s most dominant pitchers found? The Mets, obviously, have gone the young and homegrown route, with deGrom, Harvey, and Matz all coming to them through the draft, Familia getting signed as a 16-year-old international amateur, and Syndergaard coming to them as a moldable minor leaguer in a trade. But is this typical?

A look at the last five Octobers suggests that the Mets were indeed typical in getting their most impactful innings from pitchers who were a) homegrown and b) on the right side of the dividing line of 30.

In search of horses for October

A look at how teams acquired the top postseason pitchers

2015	Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	19.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2-1, 15 Ks, 1 BB	Starter	0.5	31	Trade (age 31)
2014	Madison Bumgarner	Giants	52.2 IP, 1.03 ERA, 4-1, 45 Ks, 6 BBs	Starter	1.7	24	Draft (1st rd)
2014	Wade Davis	Royals	12 Gs, 14.1 IP, 0.63 ERA, 20 Ks, 2 BBs	Reliever	1.1	28	Trade (age 27)
2014	Greg Holland	Royals	11 Gs, 11 IP, 0.82 ERA, 15 Ks, 5 BBs	Reliever	0.9	28	Draft (10th rd)
2014	Yusmeiro Petit	Giants	12.2 IP, 1.42 ERA, 3-0, 13 Ks, 4 BBs	Reliever	0.9	29	FA (age 27)
2013	Justin Verlander	Tigers	23 IP, 0.39 ERA, 1-1, 31 Ks, 3 BBs	Starter	1.1	30	Draft (1st rd)
2013	Trevor Rosenthal	Cardinals	10 Gs, 11.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 18 Ks, 3 BBs	Reliever	0.8	23	Draft (21st rd)
2013	Jon Lester	Red Sox	34.2 IP, 1.56 ERA, 4-1, 29 Ks, 8 BBs	Starter	0.8	29	Draft (2nd rd)
2013	John Lackey	Red Sox	26 IP, 2.77 ERA, 3-1, 25 Ks, 6 BBs	Starter	0.7	34	FA (age 31)
2012	Darren O'Day	Orioles	7 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 1 BB	Reliever	1.1	29	Waivers
2012	Justin Verlander	Tigers	28.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 3-1, 29 Ks, 6 BB	Starter	0.9	29	Draft (1st rd)
2012	Sergio Romo	Giants	10 Gs, 10.2 IP, 0.84 ERA, 9 Ks, 1 BB	Reliever	0.8	29	Draft (28th rd)
2012	Ryan Vogelsong	Giants	24.2 IP, 1.09 ERA, 3-0, 21 Ks, 10 BBS	Starter	0.8	34	FA (age 33)
2011	Chris Carpenter	Cardinals	36 IP, 3.25 ERA, 4-0, 21 Ks, 11 BBs	Starter	0.9	36	FA (age 28)
2011	Neftali Feliz	Rangers	11 Gs, 11.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 12 Ks, 6 BBs	Reliever	0.8	23	Trade (age 19)
2011	Joaquin Benoit	Tigers	7.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 9 Ks, 3 BBs	Reliever	0.7	33	FA (age 33)
2011	Yovani Gallardo	Brewers	19 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1-1, 16 Ks, 8 BBs	Starter	0.5	25	Draft (2nd rd)

	Demographics		How acquired
	Age 21-25	4	Draft	10
	Age 26-30	11	International Free Agent	1
	Age 31-35	4	Waivers	1
	Age 36-40	1	Trade	3
			Free agency	5

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference.com

Using Win Probability Added (WPA) – which is essentially WAR as broken down on a play-by-play basis inside a game – to identify the four pitchers each October who had the biggest impact reveals that just one pitcher was acquired as a top-of-the-market free-agent starter: John Lackey for the 2013 Red Sox. Beyond that, there was one middle reliever who received a top-shelf contract (Joaquin Benoit, who was signed to a three-year deal by Dave Dombrowski and the Tigers in 2011) and three pitchers who landed with their teams as castoffs: Chris Carpenter, Yusmeiro Petit, and Ryan Vogelsong.

Of the other 15 pitchers in the group, 10 were acquired by their teams through the draft (though it’s worth noting that many of those pitchers were found in later rounds), one more (Familia) landed with his club as an international amateur, one (Darren O’Day) was acquired via waivers, and three were acquired in trades.

Meanwhile, 15 of the 20 pitchers who ranked among the most valuable in each of the past five seasons were age 30 or younger; of the other five pitchers, just one (Chris Carpenter with the 2011 Cardinals) was over 35.

Finally, it’s worth noting that nine of the 20 pitchers in this group that made the biggest October impact were relievers. That, in turn, underscores the magnified significance of back-end relievers once the playoffs arrive, given the ability to match up and to lean more heavily on bullpen arms given the built-in days off.

Do any of those patterns offer a blueprint for replicating the construction of the Mets’ dominant staff? Of course not. There are plenty of teams that have gone down in flames while trying to build around young, homegrown arms.

That said, as the Red Sox contemplate how to move forward in their efforts to transform a pitching staff that proved a liability in 2015, the logic of their strategy entering last season – bet on younger pitchers, limit the commitments to pitchers on the wrong side of 30 – has been in evidence this October.

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