Jets get a course correction, but it won’t fly here
Last week, I took a deep breath and picked, among others, the Browns, Jets, and Bears. All three covered the point spread and I had a strong week.
These 2017 laughingstocks are proof that early-season lines can be deceiving, particularly when seemingly bad teams are installed as inflated underdogs. The Jets, in particular, are in line for a correction. New York was getting 6½ points at Detroit Monday night and crushed the Lions. Now it’s Week 2 and the Jets are 3-point favorites at home against division rival Miami.
Gambling corrections move in both directions. Detroit was nearly a touchdown favorite over the Jets, got destroyed at home by a team starting a rookie quarterback (Sam Darnold) in prime time, and is now catching 6 points at San Francisco, a team that no one is ready to call “good.” Are the Lions that bad? Are the Jets that good?
We’ll know soon enough, but for now we need to keep wiping out the oddsmakers while they scramble to adjust.
This week’s picks (home team in caps):
Miami (+3) over NY JETS: Last week I couldn’t figure out why the Lions were such big favorites over the Jets, and this week — despite New York thumping Detroit — I think it’s a bit premature to install the Jets as a field goal favorite over a similarly talented division rival. Expect a slugfest within the number as one of these squads attempts to begin the season 2-0. Risking $110 to win $100.
New England (even) over JACKSONVILLE: The Patriots have an obvious advantage at quarterback and on the sidelines. Additionally, does it ever end well for a New England opponent when one of its players taunts the Patriots through the media? I thought Tom Coughlin was running things in Jacksonville. I’m far from a New England homer, but does anyone really expect Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey to have the last laugh? Risking $110 to win $100.
NY Giants (+3) over DALLAS: In the golden age of quarterbacking, Dallas made the astute decision of building a team around a running back. The bill for such incompetence will be paid in full this season. Risking $165 to win $150.
LA RAMS (-13) over Arizona: The Cardinals fan base has a lot to look forward to in 2018. Their team’s offense emerged from an entire offseason and splurged at home, producing one garbage-time touchdown. Now they’re heading to LA to face a team with Super Bowl aspirations. This has “laugher” written all over it. Risking $110 to win $100.