Not all predictions are useless.
A group of Boston Globe readers accurately predicted nine of baseball’s 10 playoff teams after participating in a 30-minute online experiment using Unanimous A.I.’s Swarm Intelligence on Aug. 3.
Swarm intelligence harnesses the collective knowledge of a group to yield an answer or outcome. Our baseball swarm answered 20 questions, including predicting the 10 playoff teams. The swarm had 60 seconds to come to a consensus on each question and each question had up to six answers.
The one incorrect prediction was the St. Louis Cardinals, who were eliminated in the final game of the regular season. The swarm correctly predicted four of six division winners, but missed on all four wild card spots, though it still landed on the right combination of teams in each league.
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The swarm predicted the Blue Jays — not the Red Sox — would win the AL East and that the Sox would lock up the first wild card spot.
Here is a look at the results of the swarm compared to how things actually turned out:
AL East
Swarm prediction: Toronto
Actual winner: Red Sox
AL Central
Swarm prediction: Cleveland
Actual winner: Cleveland
AL West
Swarm prediction: Texas
Actual winner: Texans
NL East
Swarm prediction: Washington
Actual winner: Washington
NL Central
Swarm prediction: Chicago Cubs
Actual winner: Chicago Cubs
NL West
Swarm prediction: San Francisco
Actual winner: LA Dodgers
First AL Wild Card
Swarm prediction: Boston
Actual winner: Baltimore
Second AL Wild Card
Swarm prediction: Baltimore
Actual winner: Toronto
First NL Wild Card
Swarm prediction: LA Dodgers
Actual winner: NY Mets
Second NL Wild Card
Swarm prediction: St. Louis
Actual winner: San Francisco
There are still some categories the swarm predicted that are not yet decided, such as the league championship and World Series winners as well as season awards. Here is what the swarm predicted for those questions:
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ALCS winner: Cleveland
NLCS winner: Chicago Cubs
World Series winner: Chicago Cubs
How many games will the World Series go? 6.
AL Cy Young Award: Cole Hamels
AL MVP: Jose Altuve
AL Manager of Year: Terry Francona
NL Cy Young Award: Stephen Strasburg
NL MVP: Kris Bryant
NL Manager of Year: Joe Maddon
UNU has conducted swarms that included as many as 200 participants and as few as five. A swarm earlier this year predicted the Kentucky Derby superfecta: the first, second, third, and fourth horses in the race. The odds of that? 540-1.
Follow Rachel G. Bowers on Twitter @RachelGBowers.