MOSCOW — Russia’s economic growth may grind to a halt this year as capital flight accelerates in the wake of its annexation of Crimea last month, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Tuesday.
Gross domestic product may expand less than 0.5 percent or may not grow at all, Siluanov told the ministry’s annual meeting in Moscow. The slowdown is occurring as ‘‘geopolitical uncertainty’’ drives capital outflows, compounding the risk of a drop in the price of oil, Russia’s main export earner, he said.
US and European sanctions triggered by President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine last month threaten to tip the $2 trillion economy into recession after sagging investment last year slowed growth to a four-year low. With the risk of falling oil prices, the government’s scope for stimulus spending is limited, according to Siluanov.
‘‘The conditions we have to work in in 2014 are probably the toughest since 2008-2009 crisis,’’ Siluanov said. ‘‘Capital outflows reduce the possibility for investment growth in the economy and create risks of an unbalanced budget.’’
Capital outflows rose to $50.6 billion in the first three months of the year from $27.5 billion a year earlier, according to the central bank. The ruble is down 9.1 percent against the dollar this year, the second-worst performer among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
Russia will dip into its sovereign wealth funds next year to finance Crimea, suspending its budget rule, according to four people with knowledge of government discussions. Funding for the region, home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, will be at least 130 billion rubles ($3.6 billion) next year, another of the people said. All four asked not to be identified as planning is confidential.