Holiday sales forecasts are starting to sound like a broken record.
Jon Hurst, president of the Retailers Association of Massachusetts, is “cautiously optimistic” — a phrase he used to define his outlook on the holiday season last year and something very similar to what he’s said since 2010.
The ho-hum forecast is echoed in national projections from analysts and economists.
“We have not yet fully escaped the economic challenge that we experienced even four or five years ago,” said Madison Riley, an analyst with Kurt Salmon in New York. “The economy is still improving and not where it was prior to 2008.”
The state retail association predicts sales will climb 3.9 percent to $15.4 billion in November and December, which is just under the National Retail Federation’s forecast of 4.1 percent growth to $616.9 billion.
The forecasts are slightly better than last year, when sales climbed 3.3 percent in Massachusetts, and retailers are working hard to pursue every possible avenue for growth again this year.
Many are offering door-buster-like deals earlier than ever to extend the season, some have retooled warehouses, and others poured millions into credit-card security.
Tricia Patrick, a principal at Bain Capital in Boston who focuses on the retail and consumer industries, said this season should be helped by lower gas prices and lower rates of unemployment.
“In general, if the consumer is a little bit stronger, it should be better for retail,’’ Patrick said. But, she noted, most Americans have not seen meaningful gains in their incomes in recent years.
Another problem: There aren’t many must-have items this season other than the iPhone 6, introduced in September.
“There’s nothing new and exciting this year,” said Marshal Cohen, an analyst with the NPD Group, a market research firm in New York.
It’s one reason why most Americans plan to stay home on Black Friday this year, according to a new report from Bankrate.com. The report, which surveyed 1,000 Americans, found that only 28 percent said they’d shop in-store on the day after Thanksgiving. A total of 40 percent said they would shop at stores or online.
E-commerce for the holiday season is projected to increase by 8 to 11 percent and will reach $105 billion nationally, according to the retail federation. “Upwards of 40 percent of traffic and approximately 25 percent of sales are being generated now through tablets and smartphones,” Patrick said.
That means retailers need to do all they can to make sure their mobile sites work well — including as a place to let shoppers actually pay for items and complete transactions. “One of the oldest rules in retail is collect the money. Getting that right is important,’’ Patrick said.
Taryn Luna can be reached at taryn.luna@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @TarynLuna. Beth Healy of the Globe staff and Globe correspondent Jack Newsham contributed to this report.