WASHINGTON — Plunging crude oil prices are diverting hundreds of billions of dollars away from the treasure chests of oil-exporting nations, putting some US adversaries under greater stress.
After two years of falling prices, the effects have reverberated across the globe, fueling economic discontent in Venezuela, changing Russia’s economic and political calculations, and dampening Iranian leaders’ hopes of a financial windfall when sanctions linked to its nuclear program will be lifted next year.
At a time of tension for US international relations, cheap oil has dovetailed with some of the Obama administration’s foreign policy goals — pressuring President Vladimir Putin of Russia, undermining the popularity of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, and tempering the prospects for Iranian oil revenue. At the same time, it is pouring cash into the hands of consumers, boosting tepid economic recoveries in Europe, Japan, and the United States.
‘‘Cheap oil hurts revenues for some of our foes and helps our some of our friends. The Europeans, South Koreans, and Japanese — they’re all winners,’’ said Robert McNally, director for energy in President George W. Bush’s National Security Council and now head of the Rapidan Group, a consulting firm. ‘‘It’s not good for Russia that’s for sure, and it’s not good for Iran.’’
The reason for the deep drop in oil prices continues to be Saudi Arabia’s refusal to cut its oil exports in order to prop up prices. Instead, the kingdom is producing crude at close to record levels, helping it hang on to market share and reduce development of high-cost competitors — such as Arctic oil, Canadian oil sands, ultra-deep Brazilian off-shore fields, and US shale oil. The Saudis are also fighting to keep market share as crude output rises in Iraq and Iran, the longtime Saudi rival.
In Iran, cheap oil is forcing the government to ratchet down expectations. The much-anticipated lifting of sanctions as a result of the deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program is expected to result in an additional half-million barrels a day of oil exports by the middle of 2016. But at current prices, Iran’s income from those sales will still fall short of revenue earned from constrained oil exports a year ago.
Moreover, low prices are making it difficult for Iran to persuade international oil companies to develop Iran’s long-neglected oil and gas fields, which have been off limits since sanctions were broadened in 2012.
‘‘Should Iran come out of sanctions, they will face a very different market than the one they had left in 2012,’’ Amos Hochstein, the State Department’s special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs, said in an interview. ‘‘They were forced to recede in a world of over $100 oil, and sanctions will be lifted at $36 oil. They will have to work harder to convince companies to come in and take the risk for supporting their energy infrastructure and their energy production.’’
Meanwhile, in Russia, low oil prices have compounded damage done by US and European sanctions that were designed to target Russia’s energy and financial sectors. And when Iran increases output, its grade of crude oil will most likely go to Europe, where it will compete directly with Russia’s Urals oil, McNally said.
During a news conference earlier this month, Putin said Russian leaders had to rerun budget calculations because of low oil prices, having already lowered expectations before. ‘‘All our calculations were based on the oil price of $50 a barrel,’’ Putin said, half the expectations from the end of 2014. He added: ‘‘I believe we will have to make further adjustments.’’