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Two new polls show Brown, Warren in tight race

Supporters Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren held signs prior to a debate in Lowell on Oct. 1.

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Supporters Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren held signs prior to a debate in Lowell on Oct. 1.

Two new polls released Sunday indicate a tight race between Senator Scott Brown, a Republican, and his challenger, Democrat Elizabeth Warren, with either candidate capable of pulling out a victory on Tuesday.

One of the polls, by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and the Boston Herald, showed Brown ahead by one percentage point, 49 percent to 48 percent. The second survey, by the Western New England University Polling Institute and the Springfield Republican newspaper, showed Warren leading Brown by four percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent.

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The UMass Lowell poll surveyed 956 Massachusetts registered voters between Wednesday and Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The results showing Brown with a one-point lead were based on a sample of 800 voters who were deemed likely to vote.

The Western New England poll of 535 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 26 and Nov. 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In the presidential race, the UMass Lowell poll showed President Obama trouncing Mitt Romney in Massachusetts, with 57 percent of likely voters favoring Obama and 37 percent favoring Romney.

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In the Senate race, seven of nine recent public polls have shown Warren with a lead of between two and seven percentage points. A poll taken by the Globe showed Brown with a two-point lead, or a tie when including voters who did not express an initial preference but said they were leaning toward one of the candidates. Many national political handicappers have given Warren the edge in recent weeks.

The previous Western New England University poll, taken Sept. 28 through Oct. 4, showed Warren leading 50 percent to 45 percent. In the last UMass Lowell poll, which was released Sept. 19, Brown had 49 percent support among likely voters, compared with 45 percent for Warren.

“What these campaigns do on the ground to get out the vote is likely to determine the winner,” said Joshua Dyck, associate professor of political science and codirector of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion, in a statement Sunday.

Noah Bierman can be reached at nbierman@globe.com. Michael Levenson can be reached at mlevenson@globe.com.
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