WASHINGTON — President Obama this week is expected to formally reject a Republican attempt to force construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, a move that will likely open the veto era of his presidency.
A Keystone veto, which would be the third and most significant of Obama’s six years in office, would likely be followed by vetoes of bills that would make changes in the Affordable Care Act, impose new sanctions on Iran, and roll back child nutrition standards, among others.
For Obama, his Cross Townsend black roller ball pen will become an extension of his second-term strategy to act alone in the face of Republican opposition and safeguard his legislative record.
“It’s a new period of his administration,” said James Thurber, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University in Washington. “He will use the veto to protect his past record and not allow things he disagrees with to go forward.”
Representative David E. Price, a North Carolina Democrat, said Obama has little choice: “I don’t think, in this divided government, there’s much doubt he will have to use it.”
But to Republicans who want to use their majority to reverse the president’s regulatory agenda and block his executive actions, Obama’s expected vetoes will be prime examples of what they see as his arrogance.
“There’s a lot we can get done together if the president puts his famous pen to use signing bills rather than vetoing legislation his liberal allies don’t like,” said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican majority leader.
If Obama continues on the veto path as expected, he could in his last two years in office easily surpass the 12 vetoes of his predecessor, President George W. Bush.
He will not come close to the 635 vetoes that President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued during his 12 years in office or the 414 by President Grover Cleveland during his first term. But Obama might match the 37 vetoes by President Bill Clinton or the 44 by President George H.W. Bush.
The statistics reflect how rare the veto has become in the modern presidency. Although the veto was once an accepted step in back-and-forth negotiations between presidents and lawmakers, historians say the increased partisanship and gridlock on Capitol Hill has made it more of a last-ditch measure, rather than the everyday tool it once was.
Some lawmakers say partisanship could in fact hold down Obama’s veto count by preventing Republican-sponsored legislation from reaching the president’s desk in the first place.
Republicans hold only 54 seats in the Senate, and most legislation requires 60 votes to avoid a filibuster that would block passage of the legislation. That means the Democratic minority led by Senator Harry Reid of Nevada can still stop Republican efforts to pass legislation if Senate Democrats hold together.
Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, said presidents must always be mindful of the fact that Congress can override a president’s veto with a two-thirds vote in both chambers. Getting a veto overridden is an indication of weakness that presidents try to avoid, which gives Obama’s Democratic allies in the Senate another incentive to block legislation before it gets to the president.
Still, members of both parties are bracing for a future in which Republicans muscle through legislation that the president will then reject.
They could well start by pushing through budget measures, some of which require only 51 votes in the Senate and cannot be blocked by Democrats, and then dare Obama to veto them.
The Keystone bill, which White House officials have promised the president will veto, passed on Feb. 11, but Republicans said they would not officially deliver it to Obama’s desk until this week, when they were back from a break.
Their strategy is to have Obama reject the bill when they are in session, giving them the opportunity to rally and denounce the president on the floors of the Senate and House.
Congressional aides said they expected Obama would get the bill on Monday, and White House officials said the president would veto it soon after.
Although environmentalists have spent years marching and protesting against the pipeline, and have long urged Obama to reject the permit application from TransCanada, the company hoping to build it, White House officials say the president will veto the bill because it shifts the authority to approve the pipeline from the White House to Congress — essentially reducing the president’s power.
A veto of the bill would not mean the end of the Keystone project, but rather that Obama will retain the authority to make a final decision on whether to approve it.