WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton has expanded her lead in Iowa over Bernie Sanders to nine points among likely Democratic caucusgoers thanks to support from women, seniors, and the wealthy, and to concerns over terrorism.
Yet if the Vermont senator can turn out first-time caucus-goers and younger Iowans, he could pose a threat to the former secretary of state.
Six weeks before the first nominating contest of the 2016 election, Clinton is the top choice for 48 percent of Democratic likely caucusgoers, compared with Sanders at 39 percent, according to a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll. In an October survey, Clinton led Sanders 42 percent to 37 percent, though that matchup included Joe Biden.
While Clinton is ''solidifying her position,'' she hasn't yet hit the 50 percent mark, which might give her a greater degree of comfort, said J. Ann Selzer, founder of Selzer & Co., the West Des Moines-based firm that conducted the poll.
In a distant third place is former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley, at 4 percent. The findings come at a time when terrorist attacks in Paris and in California and a call from Republican candidate Donald Trump to stop allowing Muslims into the United States have dominated news coverage.
''If anybody could handle Mr. Trump one on one I think it could be her,'' said Mike Dooley of Cedar Rapids, 68, a retired law enforcement official.
Clinton and Sanders both have vulnerabilities based on their past stances on issues. Seventy-one percent of those surveyed said they disagree with Clinton's support of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003; 61 percent disagree with Sanders' opposition of holding gunmakers legally responsible for mass shootings. A majority of Clinton's supporters, 54 percent, agree with her vote to bail out Wall Street banks in 2008 financial crisis while two-thirds of Sanders' supporters disagree with that vote.
''Bernie Sanders has proven to be a worthy adversary,'' Selzer said. ''He's attracting people who, as a coalition, together, can be a force to be reckoned with, if he can turn them out. They're notoriously difficult.''
Liberals have long been excited about the hypothetical prospect of a Sanders ticket with Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and 7 percent of Clinton supporters said they might switch their support to Sanders if he were to commit ahead of the caucuses to making Warren, a leading Wall Street critic, his running mate.
In such a hypothetical, even after Clinton and O'Malley supporters who want Warren on a ticket are reallocated to Sanders, Clinton still would hold a six-point lead, at 45 percent.