SALEM, N.H. — New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary has a reputation for unexpected results, but the 2016 GOP ballot is something to behold: White House hopefuls who once would have been considered the flavor-of-the-month in previous cycles have yet to sour, and more established candidates have yet to rise.
Struggling candidates have pinned their hopes on the Granite State's primary — despite polling at less than 1 percent and barely qualifying for the most recent prime-time debate. Meanwhile, a bombastic Donald Trump continues grabbing attention — and support — with jaw-dropping statements, irking some voters.
For decades, New Hampshire's primary has served as a filter, winnowing the presidential field to just a couple of candidates who continue on to other primaries. The woes that usually end a presidential campaign before primary night — low poll numbers, lack of funds, poor debate performances, small crowds, scandal, outlandish statements — have done little to narrow this unwieldy field, which is now at 13.
"How are you going to get the clowns off the stage?" asked Bob McKean of Rye at a recent town hall for Ohio Governor John Kasich, who attracted a small crowd of about 50 to an elementary school cafeteria in strong area for Republicans.
One candidate — US Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina — abruptly exited the GOP primary Monday. He made his announcement via web video after a full weekend of campaign stops with US Senator John McCain in New Hampshire.
Political analysts, party leaders, and the candidates themselves don't expect the field to shrink much more until Granite State voters cast their ballots in February.
"You never know what's going to happen," said Cathy Stacey, chairwoman of the Salem Republican committee, who is not connected to any of the 2016 contenders. "It's an extraordinary cycle."
Since July, Trump, a reality TV star and real estate mogul, has topped polls, with several candidates trading places directly behind him in New Hampshire: US Senator Marco Rubio, US Senator Ted Cruz, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and most recently, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, US Senator Rand Paul, and Kasich remain in the middle or toward the back of the pack in surveys.
Four candidates — former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, former US senator Rick Santorum, former New York governor George Pataki, and former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore — have registered barely a blip.
"We can't get down to the issues because we can't get rid of the clowns," McKean explained later during an interview. "It's not letting people like John Kasich get to the issues that need to be discussed."
Patrick James Floyd, a retired Foreign Service officer, agreed, saying after the Kasich town hall that the candidates on his short list — Kasich, Bush, Christie, and Fiorina — are having a tough time distinguishing themselves.
"I call it the celebrity season or the entertainment season," Floyd said of the summer and early fall. "At this point, people everywhere are starting to pay more attention."
Six weeks before the primary, the middle tier of GOP contenders are redoubling their efforts in New Hampshire.
Kasich is expanding his ground game, hiring staff (now at 11) and opening offices, but attendance at his events fluctuates from a few dozen to a few hundred.
Christie has spent more time in New Hampshire than any other candidate, racking up coveted endorsements — and now he's just breaking into the upper echelons of state polling.
And Bush and the super PAC supporting him have spent millions on advertising without much to show for it.
But many of the candidates at the bottom of the polls have also pinned their presidential hopes on New Hampshire's primary.
Paul maintained the strategy set back in April of winning New Hampshire, saying last week, "It's best to let voters winnow it out."
He stood before about 50 voters crowded into the upstairs room of a tavern in Derry on Friday, talking about his brand of fiscal conservatism, which blames both parties for demanding "unlimited spending" on their pet projects.
"We think we have a stronger campaign than reported in the mainstream media," he told the crowd.
Like Paul, Pataki said he's staying put until New Hampshire voters reject his message.
"We know things are going to change dramatically," the former governor of New York said. "How they're going to change? I don't know. But I'm going to continue to fight."
Political science professor Dante Scala of the University of New Hampshire said he doesn't expect the field to dwindle more than it already has with the loss of Graham, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and Rick Perry, former governor of Texas. But, he said, the candidates to watch are the ones in the middle, "those who are in the mid- to high-single digits."
Those at the bottom "really have nothing to lose by staying in," he said. The campaigns of some candidates, such as Huckabee, are more about advocating certain ideas and policies than winning the election, Scala said, adding: "They're not in it to win, but to reach certain niche voters … to get their points out there."
But the more traditional candidates, those in the middle of the pack, "they're not in it just to sound off," Scala said.
Former US senator John Sununu, who is Kasich's state director, points to the Republican debates as evidence, saying that even those candidates who were polling at 1 or 2 percent in New Hampshire were "getting a full hour or two hours of prime time exposure. That has artificially expanded the field, or caused some candidates to stay in, in order to get the benefit of that TV time."
So just what will force, as McKean put it to Kasich, the "clowns off the stage?"
"Make sure I win New Hampshire," the governor responded.
Akilah Johnson can be reached at akilah.johnson@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @akjohnson1922.