FORT DODGE, Iowa — The chilled air and snow flurries in Iowa this week reminded Senator Bernie Sanders of another place that’s embraced his Democratic socialist ideology.
“On this beautiful Vermont morning, thank you for coming out,” Sanders joked to a crowd of about 200 before launching into his speech in this tiny western Iowa town.
It’s not just the weather that made a politician known for railing against Wall Street feel at home. Democratic voters in this mostly white, rural state have warmed to Sanders, just as voters did in his own rural state, sending him to Congress 10 times.
Hillary Clinton’s once towering leadin Iowa polls has evaporated, raising a very real possibility that Sanders could deliver an embarrassing upset in the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses. Such a victory would give him a strong shot at capturing New Hampshire, another mostly white state where Sanders has been tied or leading for months in polls.
That scenario would validate a left-leaning campaign that started on the fringes of the Democratic Party. It would rock the foundations of the Clinton campaign, even while most Democrats still believe the former secretary of state would wind up as the party’s nominee. A win by Sanders would also resurrect ghosts of 2008, when Clinton’s much-vaunted candidacy faltered first in Iowa.
Eager to avoid a hurricane of doubt, Clinton’s campaign has begun harsher attacks on Sanders, saying his ideas are unrealistic and he’s unprepared to be commander-in-chief.
After Sanders made the case in Sunday’s debate for a political revolution and promised a more expansive universal health care and free college tuition, the pace of Clinton’s barbs has intensified.
Just as Sanders was wrapping up a stem-winder in Carroll, Iowa, Tuesday afternoon, Clinton’s campaign released a list of former diplomats who don’t believe he has a workable foreign policy approach for the Middle East.
A few hours later, as Sanders rolled though the western part of the state to another packed event, the Clinton team accused him of lacking electability by pointing out GOP super PACs are pushing his candidacy.
Clinton plans her own Iowa tour starting Thursday, her second stop in the state this week. A member of the Clinton clan — Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, or their daughter, Chelsea Clinton — has been in the state eight of the past 21 days.
“You will be caucusing for the person you think can do all aspects of the job,” she said Monday in Toledo, according to local reports. “This is no opportunity for the new president to say ‘Come back to me later with that crisis.’ ”
Nine months ago, almost nobody thought Sanders could present such a formidable challenge to Clinton. That included some members of his campaign team. But for Sanders to stay alive deep into the race, it is essential that he win Iowa and New Hampshire.
The candidate himself came close to saying as much, speaking to reporters outside his new campaign bus Tuesday: “I think if we win in both states, we stand a real chance.”
Democratic strategist Joe Trippi, who managed former Vermont governor Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential election, put a finer point on it.
“If he can’t win Iowa, he can’t win anywhere,” Trippi said.
That’s because Iowa’s electorate is mostly white. In states that follow the first two contests, the Democratic electorate has more minorities — groups Sanders has struggled to attract. The next contests are in Nevada, where 37 percent of the population is nonwhite, and South Carolina, where 35 percent of the residents are black or Hispanic. (Minorities are overwhelmingly more likely to be Democrats.)
“He has showed absolutely no ability to break out beyond white progressives and white millennials,” said Trippi, who isn’t working for any campaign.
Sanders is trying to court minority voters, hosting a rally in Birmingham, Ala., this week that drew roughly 7,000 and racking up endorsements from three Spanish-language news outlets in Nevada.
So for Sanders and his supporters, winning in Iowa presents an opportunity to make an impression with the legions of voters who initially passed him over, a chance for a second look.
The state has played the role before. In 2004, a resounding and unexpected victory in Iowa set up John Kerry for the Democratic nomination.
That victory was “the slingshot that reset the entire political landscape,” said David Wade, a top staffer on Kerry’s 2004 campaign. He added: “We bet the house on Iowa.”
One hurdle between Sanders and the nomination is the lack of experience by the volunteers who will be on the ground on caucus night for him.
Meet Connie Traum. The 60-year-old Maryland transplant to Iowa wore a button with the words “caucus captain” emblazoned on it Tuesday night in Sioux City. She’s going to be one of two people managing the hectic caucus process for Sanders in one Sioux City precinct.
Yet Traum has never run a caucus, a lengthy meeting with byzantine rules that Iowa voters employ to pick their nominee. To fill this gap, the campaign has held six training sessions with her and paired her with an experienced partner.
Still, it’s intimidating even for a caucus chair with previous experience. Julie Maddox, 69, will play that role for Clinton at a caucus meeting in Dubuque. She’s done it before. A retired school teacher, she has followed the Clinton plan to a tee.
She has recruited a team for the night that includes a visibility captain (in charge of signs); a persuasion captain (for peeling off voters from other candidates); a math captain (to track the numbers in the complex formula used for delegates); and a sign-in captain (to record names of supporters.) Each captain has a back-up person.
Plus, she’s spending the next few days calling every single person in her precinct who has said they’re going to caucus for Clinton, to explain the drill.
Sanders spent his time here playing on his strength — the enthusiasm he generates.
Sanders’ swing through western Iowa this week hits areas where he’s not particularly strong. It included none of the college towns that contain legions of so-called Sanderistas.
Anecdotally at least, that effort seemed to be working.
In Carroll County Tuesday, small-business owner Luke Knowles came to hear Sanders but said in an interview before Sanders spoke that he didn’t plan on caucusing for him.
Sixteen minutes into the speech, as Sanders talked about corporate welfare, Knowles passed a note to a reporter: “Revision,” it read, “I will caucus!”
Annie Linskey can be reached at annie.linskey@globe.com.