WASHINGTON – Republicans puzzling over the fortunes of Marco Rubio, whose talents as a politician have not yet translated into clear opportunities in the early GOP primary states, should keep an eye Nevada. The Florida senator’s connections there could help him strike gold in the Silver State.
For many of the candidates, and for much of the political world, Nevada’s GOP caucus on Feb. 23 is merely a speed bump between the crucial South Carolina primary and the March 1 “Super Tuesday” voting in 14 states.
But for Rubio — eclipsed by insurgent conservatives Donald Trump and Ted Cruz and locked in a fight in the second tier with several other candidates — Nevada could be his best shot at an early state victory.
He lived in Las Vegas for six years, from his third grade year through his eighth, giving him the strongest ties to the state of any Republican candidate. He is one of only a few candidates with substantial organization there, political observers in the state say.
“You really can’t say he’s a native son, but he’s the closest thing we’re going to have,” said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno.
Rubio, along with his mother and sister, converted to Mormonism in his childhood before switching back to Catholicism, giving him ties to the politically important Nevada Mormon community.
Rubio, 44, describes relocating to Nevada in his 2012 memoir, ``An American Son,’’ detailing the move from a predominantly Cuban community in Miami to the diverse Las Vegas area. His parents both worked at Las Vegas hotels — his father as a bartender at Sam’s Town, a hotel and casino, and his mother as a maid at the Imperial Palace Hotel, now the renovated Linq Hotel.
“Marco spent a large part of his childhood in Nevada and knows the struggles of Nevada working families because he lived them,” Mike Slanker, who runs Rubio’s campaign operation in the state, said in a statement.
One of his Mormon cousins, Mo Denis, now serves as a Democratic senator in the Nevada Legislature. In his memoir, Rubio describes talking with Denis about Mormonism when they were children growing up in the same neighborhood. But Rubio reveals little about what the faith meant to him, other than its ``sound moral structure’’ and a sense of belonging in his new community.
“I liked Sunday services,’’ he wrote. ``I got to wear my best clothes and see school friends who attended our church.”
Rubio’s rapid rise as a star in the Florida and national GOP has not been reflected in polls of early presidential primary states. Iowa and South Carolina’s conservative Christian voting blocs seem more favorable to Cruz, and New Hampshire polls show Trump way ahead.
In Nevada, where fewer other candidates are campaigning, Rubio has held 13 events that have attracted a total of more than 5,000 people, according to his campaign.
If Rubio performs well there, it could help carry him through to the winner-take-all Florida primary on March 15. But despite Rubio’s home state advantage, Florida might not be a safe bet for the senator, either — a poll from Florida Atlantic University released Wednesday shows Trump 32 points ahead of the pack.
Rubio faces competition in the state from Cruz and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who both have established ground campaigns in the state.
Cruz’s campaign has an organized presence in all 17 of Nevada’s counties, said Robert Uithoven, who oversees the Texas senator’s campaign in the Silver State. “We’ve got a very strong infrastructure here in Nevada,” Uithoven said.
Bush, who has visited the state a handful of times so far this cycle, was the first to establish a presence in the state, Herzik said.
Trump’s Nevada campaign lacks comparable organization, Herzik said, but seems to still be gathering Nevada supporters, as he is throughout the country because of heavy media attention and voters’ thirst for an outside voice.
Rubio has garnered a number of high-profile endorsements from Mormon politicians, most notably Lieutenant Governor Mark Hutchison, who ran former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s Nevada campaign and is now directing Rubio’s. Mormons, who constitute a small percentage of the population but a significant portion of voters most election cycles, could give a candidate the edge they need to win the state in a low-turnout caucus, said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
In 2012, although eventual nominee Romney won the state, the results of Nevada’s Republican caucus were overshadowed by vote counting problems. If voting issues upstage the results again, the contest could lose some of its clout in predicting an eventual nominee.
Moreover, Nevada Republicans are notoriously difficult to poll, Herzik said, because they are spread throughout rural areas.
The latest poll, taken in December, shows Trump ahead, trailed by Cruz and Rubio, but experts say it doesn’t indicate much.
“We don’t really know where the race stands,” Damore said, noting that although Trump, Cruz, Bush and Rubio all have a shot at victory, “It really could be any one of those four.”
Sophia Bollag can be reached at sophia.bollag@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @SophiaBollag.