Washington Republicans, scrambling to figure out how to best organize the national convention, are discovering there might not be a best -- or any good way -- to do this.
Heading into the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday, there are just two possible scenarios for the July confab: New York businessman Donald Trump is either the Republican presidential nominee, or he isn’t.
If he is the nominee, then a recent electoral college analysis shows Trump would struggle to win 200 out of the necessary 270 electoral college votes. In other words, he would lose badly and likely damage the GOP’s chances of keeping control of the US Senate.
Trump could also be denied the nomination, and Republicans could instead award it to Ted Cruz, or, as some are suggesting, US House Speaker Paul Ryan. But then the Republican base could revolt, putting the party in a bad place for November.
What’s more, even if Trump does not get the nomination at the convention, it’s unlikely he will go away. He could still fire off angry tweets, appear on television, and generally wreak havoc for the GOP. He could organize an independent bid in some states he (He did say last week he would no longer support the GOP nominee if it wasn’t him).
In the short-term, the Republican party faces a no-win situation. The mission for GOP leaders now is making sure this is a temporary problem by mitigating damage inside the party and with emerging demographic groups.
James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell or subscribe to his daily e-mail update on the 2016 campaign at www.bostonglobe.com/groundgame.