BEIRUT — President Bashar Assad of Syria and his allies are showing renewed confidence that the momentum in the civil war is shifting in their favor, due in part to the rapid rise of Al Qaeda-linked extremists among the rebels and the world’s reluctance to take forceful action to intervene in the fighting.
His invigorated regime has gone on the offensive, both on the ground and in its portrayal of the conflict as a choice between Assad and extremists.
Several factors appear to have convinced Assad he can weather the storm: Two years into the uprising against his family’s iron rule, his regime remains firmly entrenched in Damascus, the defection rate from the military has dwindled, and key international supporters Russia and China are still solidly on his side.
Moreover, the regime has benefited from the fallout created by audio distributed last month in which the head of the extremist Jabhat al-Nusra group, one of the most powerful and effective rebel groups in Syria, pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
After dropping largely out of sight following an hour-long speech at the Opera House in central Damascus in January, Assad has appeared in two television interviews in the past month. His wife, Asma, appeared in public in March for the first time in months, surrounded by women and children for a function honoring mothers.
“I can say, without exaggeration, that the situation in Syria now is better than it was at the beginning of the crisis,” Assad said to state-run broadcaster Al-Ikhbariya on April 17.
“With time, people became more aware of the dangers of what was happening. ... They started to gain a better understanding of the real Syria we used to live in and realized the value of the safety, security, and harmony which we used to enjoy,” he added.
On Wednesday, a smiling Assad made another rare public appearance, visiting a Damascus power station just a day after a bombing in the capital and two days after his prime minister escaped an assassination attempt.
Syrian TV showed Assad, looking confident and wearing a dark business suit, chatting with workers and shaking their hands on May Day.
“They want to scare us, we will not be scared. ... They want us to live underground, we will not live underground,” Assad was shown telling a group of workers gathered around him in a garden.
Since the beginning of the uprising in March 2011, Assad’s regime has tried to portray the movement as being driven by what it called terrorists and foreign-backed mercenaries. The government responded with a brutal military crackdown that led many to take up arms to fight back.
Jabhat al-Nusra, designated a terrorist group by the United States, has emerged as one of the most potent fighting forces.
Assad’s regime has seized on the recording of Nusra Front’s leader pledging allegiance to Al Qaeda as proof it is fighting terrorists.
“The regime is trying, and succeeding unfortunately, in brainwashing some segments of society into thinking that they are their protectors and whoever follows will massacre them,” said opposition figure Kamal Labwani.
Many Syrians acknowledge feeling more secure under Assad.
A Christian tailor who fled last month to Lebanon said at least Assad was a known quantity. He said people fled when “heavily armed and bearded gunmen” from an anti-Assad group arrived in his hometown last month.
Despite losing large swaths of territory in northern and eastern Syria, Assad’s military has retained his firm grip on Damascus, his seat of power, and key coastal areas.