BRUSSELS — NATO’s top commander said Wednesday that the 40,000 troops Russia has within striking distance of Ukraine are poised to attack on 12 hours’ notice and could accomplish their military objectives within three to five days.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia told Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany on Monday that the Kremlin was beginning to withdraw troops from the border area near Ukraine.
But the NATO commander, General Philip M. Breedlove, said in an interview with The New York Times that only a single battalion, a force of 400 to 500 troops, was on the move and that NATO intelligence could not say whether it was actually being withdrawn.
“What we can say now is that we do see a battalion size unit moving, but what we can’t confirm is that it is leaving the battlefield,” said Breedlove, of the US Air Force. “Whether that movement is aft to a less belligerent configuration or returning to barracks, we do not see that.”
Breedlove said the Russian force that remains is a potent mix of warplanes, helicopter units, artillery, infantry, and commandos with field hospitals and sufficient logistics to sustain an incursion into Ukraine.
“We believe that it can move within 12 hours,” he said. “Essentially the force is ready to go. We believe it could accomplish its objective between three to five days,” he said.
Breedlove said the Russian presence might be intended as a “coercive force” during the West’s talks with Russia about Ukraine’s future.
If the Kremlin decides to intervene militarily, Breedlove added, the force could be used to establish a land link to Crimea, the peninsula in southern Ukraine that Russia annexed last month, so that it does not have to supply it by sea.
The Russian force is also capable, he said, of carrying out a thrust to Odessa, moving to Transnistria, the Russian enclave in Moldova, or intervening in areas in eastern Ukraine.
“I think they have all the opportunities and they can make whatever decision they want,” Breedlove added. “This is a very large, very well-equipped force to be called an exercise.”