By 2030, according to the report, the city’s senior set will increase by 22,400 households. People of retirement age will account for one in five Boston households. And the bulk of new retirees will toss aside the Florida condo brochures and choose to “age in place.”
It’s great that seniors feel so comfortable here. But this is a potential housing nightmare for middle-income families who are already having trouble gaining a foothold in Boston. Increasingly, they will find themselves squeezed on one side by seniors who occupy large homes and on the other side by 20,000 undergraduates who drive up rents by sharing off-campus apartments. The middle class in this city can’t buy a break.
And to get one, they’ll have to depend on courage that they haven’t yet seen from Mayor Walsh.
Walsh’s administration understands the problem. The city’s population is on track to exceed 700,000 for the first time since the 1950s, according to the study. But unlike in those simpler times, Boston in 2030 won’t be chock-a-block with families of eight living in three-bedroom apartments. With fewer people inhabiting each unit, the pressure on the housing stock will grow even greater.
To cope, the administration has set the goal of adding 53,000 housing units by 2030. In the introduction to the 131-page report, “Housing a Changing City: Boston 2030,” Walsh unambiguously accepts the challenge of putting the new housing plan into action. That’s huge. Until now, no one in the city could figure out where the mayor actually stood on housing. He clearly understands the wisdom of building higher, denser housing developments, especially along public transit lines. And his many friends in the building trades are urging him forward.
Yet Walsh seems to freeze when confronted by NIMBY-minded residents who reflexively oppose any new construction.
Last spring, Walsh became nervous about the height of a modest, 13-unit condo project proposed for a lot across the street from the Savin Hill T station. It’s all of three stories. Now, the developer is on the verge of giving up after enduring the inescapable “community process.”
For months, Walsh was eerily quiet on a sensible proposal to build a 27-unit apartment building adjacent to the Fairmount commuter rail station in Hyde Park. Neighbors want to kill that development, too. But it is slowly and painfully winding its way through the approval process now that the mayor seems slightly more comfortable with the site. At this pace, the 53,000 units of new housing will take forever. And again, it is the middle class that will suffer most.
The high cost of land and labor here practically forces developers to build luxury units or tap into government funds available for the construction of subsidized housing for the poor. Meanwhile, families earning a respectable income of $80,000 can only afford the bottom quarter of the homeownership market in Boston. And while there are a lot of new apartments in the pipeline, they are likely to rent for upwards of $3,500.
The Walsh administration’s housing plan provides good data, detailed projections, and smart analysis. And it offers strategies to solve the problem: zoning relief in locations with good access to transit; temporary relief from property taxes in special middle-income development areas; market incentives to develop 3,500 new units of senior housing as a way for the elderly to downsize; and the creation of 16,000 new undergraduate dorm beds along with off-campus student villages.
But how willing is Walsh to fight this battle? If the mayor is serious, we should soon see him blasting through the NIMBY barricades and convincing his buddies in the building trades to bring down construction costs on homes for middle class families earning in the $50,000 to $100,000 range.
Walsh needs to shout his support for an aggressive housing policy from Boston’s rooftops. No more padding softly around the living room.
Lawrence Harmon can be reached at harmon@globe.com