SOMETIMES, IN choosing among imperfect options, it takes real courage to say yes. The temporary deal between Iran and six world powers is not perfect, but it is still a deal worth making. All the military options remain on the table, as do further sanctions. But a diplomatic solution has always been the only hope for an actual end to Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, and the interim agreement announced over the weekend represents real progress toward that goal.
The agreement gives Iran six months to demonstrate its willingness to freeze and curtail parts of its nuclear program, in exchange for temporary relief from some sanctions. It’s meant to build confidence on both sides and buy time for a more permanent solution, and gives the Iranian regime a face-saving way out of the nuclear corner that it has backed into.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that the deal will succeed. There is always the risk that the Iranian regime will change its tune once the pressure on its economy is eased. But it’s a risk worth taking. For the next six months, Iran’s nuclear progress will be halted for the first time since 2003. That includes construction of the Arak heavy plutonium reactor, a provision demanded by the French. International inspectors will have unprecedented access to Iran’s nuclear sites, gleaning more information about the true nature Iran’s program than they have ever had before.
If Iran shows bad faith during this period, the whole world will be watching. Sanctions can still be dialed back up again. No time will have been lost. And the military option will be on the table six months from now, just as it is today. If the United States does ultimately decide to take action, it will do so knowing that every diplomatic avenue had been tried.
Some Republicans and Israelis argue that it is a mistake to relieve pressure on the Iranian economy, just as its suffering from sanctions is at its peak. They argue that ratcheting up sanctions, not easing them, is a better way to behave at the bargaining table. Their analysis is based on a desire to see Iran capitulate to every international demand, as a defeated power might. But that is not realistic. Iran’s economy is hurting, but it is far from a broken country. Ordinary people are suffering, but the regime retains its ways to bypass the sanctions.
The reality is that good sanctions have a shelf life. Unending sanctions don’t change behavior. They only create a new reality that people get used to. Sanctions have never caused Castro’s regime in Cuba to falter, nor have they stopped Iran’s nuclear program from marching forward. Sanctions are an important tool. But they have their limits.
Those who want to attempt to force Iran to its knees economically through sanctions ought to remember what happened when Germany was forced to its knees after World War I. The vast suffering of ordinary people turned bitter, and gave birth to Nazism. There is a chance that this six-month easing of sanctions will do just the opposite in Iran. It could give Iranians a taste of the prosperity they could enjoy if they agree to sacrife their nuclear ambitions.