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Predicting the Red Sox lineup, version 2.5

The Red Sox are playing Allen Craig a lot (he is third on the team in at-bats) and the suspicion is that will lead to a trade.AP/Kathy Willens

FORT MYERS, Fla. — It’s not a major adjustment, but the return of Rusney Castillo from injury has us making a change to the projected Opening Day roster of the Red Sox.

Castillo is back from an oblique strain and has played well in two games. He’s in the lineup on Monday, too.

The 27-year-old from Cuba is too good to be optioned to Triple A and not injured enough for the disabled list. Something has to give.

The Red Sox are playing Allen Craig a lot (he is third on the team in at-bats) and the suspicion is that will lead to a trade. Daniel Nava, because he bats lefthanded, is more valuable off the bench for this team than Craig is.

The Sox could keep Craig around with the idea of playing him at first base next season. But this is a last-place team that needs to put its best roster on the field now.

If you want to follow along, our first shot at predicting the roster back was on March 2. Then we tried again on March 16.

We’ll run through this exercise another time or two before camp ends. Here is the latest prediction:

LINEUP (9)

CF Mookie Betts (R)

2B Dustin Pedroia (R)

DH David Ortiz (L)

LF Hanley Ramirez (R)

3B Pablo Sandoval (S)

1B Mike Napoli (R)

RF Shane Victorino (R)

SS Xander Bogaerts (R)

C Christian Vazquez (R)

Explanation: Now that Shane Victorino has given up switch hitting, he’s a little less valuable but not enough to leave out of the lineup. He has earned the benefit of the doubt based on his performance in 2013 — and a $13 million contract. But Castillo could certainly give the Red Sox some pause.

BENCH (4)

C Ryan Hanigan

INF Brock Holt

OF-1B Daniel Nava

OF Rusney Castillo

Explanation: Castillo can back up all three outfield spots and be used as a pinch runner. Having him around also creates the idea of a competition for playing time in the outfield and that’s never a bad thing. Can the Sox get much for Craig in a trade? Probably not. But there would be some salary relief and at some point they have to adjust their roster. The Sox got carried away signing and trading for outfielders for a while there.

ROTATION (5)

RHP Clay Buchholz

RHP Rick Porcello

RHP Justin Masterson

LHP Wade Miley

RHP Joe Kelly

Explanation: Kelly’s arm injury creates the possibility of a shift in the rotation. He has pitched only 7 1/3 innings against major league competition and isn’t scheduled to pitch again until Friday. For now, we’re sticking with him. But Steven Wright has pitched well and would be a good alternative if Kelly lands on the disabled list.

BULLPEN (7)

RHP Koji Uehara

RHP Junichi Tazawa

LHP Craig Breslow

RHP Edward Mujica

RHP Alexi Ogando

LHP Tommy Layne

RHP Anthony Varvaro

Explanation: Nothing has changed here. It’s a bit worrisome that Uehara is out with a hamstring strain but he won’t need more than a game or two to get ready and there’s plenty of time for that. John Farrell has said Edward Mujica is the backup closer but the Sox need a better plan than that. Tazawa has been cautious about stepping up but he’s a better option.