Maybe we should calm down about the “superhorse” talk regarding American Pharoah, because the speed figures are in and he’s below average.
I believe in the figures. I have a friend who devised his own method and, at one time, I compiled figures based on his formula. It really did help.
The Beyer Speed Figures published by The Daily Racing Form are regarded as the most easily understandable, and I like to use them when I’m evaluating a race. Here’s the one-sentence definition from the man who invented them, Andrew Beyer: It takes into account the time of a horse’s performance and the inherent speed of the racing surface over which he ran.
By that, he means a racetrack can be in a certain condition that allows horses to run above-average times or below-average times. You make that determination by comparing the final times of a given race day with the average times that horses are expected to run given their classification — that is, the stakes horses run faster than the ones in the first race.
By assigning a whole number to the final time, you can compile the average speed of a racetrack on a given day. That also allows you to compare horses that have been competing at different distances.
Beyer has calculated American Pharoah’s final time of 2:03.02 in the Kentucky Derby as 105. That’s the exact same figure he ran when winning the Arkansas Derby.
Beyer said the average winning figure of the Derby is 108. Beyer would have to go back in time to 1973 to calculate Secretariat, but the Triple Crown winner still holds the record for the Derby at 1:59 2/5. That would probably translate to a Beyer Figure in the mid 120s. Beyer did estimate a figure for Secretariat’s 31-length victory in the Belmont at 139.
There are many different types of speed figures compiled, but the general definition is that it’s a whole number that measures the final time of the race taking into account the condition of the track, weather, and where a horse has positioned himself during the race.
Speed figures are much like advanced metrics in baseball. There are people who believe in the WAR statistic and there are people who reject it. In horse racing, it’s the same thing: Some people reject speed figures and believe in the eye test.
The quote that always comes up is, “Time is only important when you’re in jail.’’
American Pharoah looked great Saturday. He also stood out before the race because of speed figures.
But right now, based on Beyer Speed Figures, American Pharoah is no Secretariat.
Joe Sullivan can be reached at jtsullivan@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @globesullivan