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FOXBOROUGH — Bill Belichick has at least a vague idea of what to expect from Andy Reid and the Chiefs offense Thursday night.
“I think it’s going to be within the West Coast family of what he does,” Belichick said Tuesday. “I don’t think he’s going to come in and run the wishbone.”
Reid has been running the same style of West Coast offense for more than 20 years — first with Brett Favre and the Packers, then with Donovan McNabb and the Eagles, and now with Alex Smith and the Chiefs.
But Belichick is smart enough to realize that he doesn’t know exactly what’s coming from Reid. Entering his 19th season, Reid is the second-most experienced head coach in the NFL behind Belichick, and you don’t survive that long without learning how to mix up your game plan and keep your opponent guessing.
Add in the inherent mystery that comes with playing in Week 1, and the Patriots have had their hands full preparing for the Chiefs.
“This is a tough team to get ready for,” said Belichick. “They do so many things well and they put a lot of pressure on you in a lot of different ways.
“It’s not like he comes in with a new offense every week. But it’s tough to defend because it’s sound. It’s well-balanced. They have complementary plays, so if you’re stopping one thing, they have something else they could go to.”
Belichick and Reid might be the best game plan-specific coaches in the NFL today. We all know about the Patriots. One week they might employ three tight ends and play power football, the next they will spread it out and let Tom Brady throw 60 times. On defense, they will switch between man-to-man and zone coverages throughout a game, and mix and match their personnel liberally.
“They play every front there is, they can play every coverage there is,” said Smith. “Get ready for everything. Most defenses aren’t that way. These guys are certainly very well-coached.”
Give Belichick extra time to prepare for a game, and it’s usually trouble for the opponent. Belichick is 13-4 in Week 1 with the Patriots, and 12-5 following a bye.
Yet Reid is arguably even better with extra time. He is only 10-8 in Week 1 over his career in Philadelphia and Kansas City (winning his last two with the Chiefs), but he’s an incredible 16-2 following a bye.
“Not much gets past Coach,” Smith said. “I think he reads the team really, really well. I think he always has a good beat on the pulse of the locker room, and where guys are at physically and mentally.”
Belichick knows first-hand how tough it can be to play one of Reid’s teams. Belichick is 5-1 all time against Reid, including a Super Bowl win over the Eagles a decade ago, but he is 1-1 against Reid with the Chiefs.
That one loss was a doozy, a 41-14 thrashing in Kansas City in 2014 in which Brady threw a pick-6 and we all questioned whether the Patriots dynasty was coming to an end (spoiler: it didn’t).
That loss also came on a Monday night, when Reid had extra time to prepare.
“I can’t think of too many teams that have handled us better than the way they handled us in 2014,” Belichick said.
The Chiefs offense provides challenges with misdirection and versatility. Not only do they have a wide array of plays based off the same look, but they have dominant, game-changing pieces in scatback Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, who can line up all across the formation.
Hill, especially, will be a tough challenge for a Patriots defense facing him for the first time. He scored 12 touchdowns as a rookie — six receiving, three rushing, two punt returns, and a kickoff return.
“That offense is built around making you play honest on defense,” Belichick said. “Making you defend the front side, making you defend the back side, make you defend deep, make you defend short, make you defend the backs, the tight ends, the receivers, and everybody gets the ball.
“That’s what they do. They make you defend everything.”
And trying to figure out what the Chiefs will do defensively isn’t so easy, either. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, 66, has been coaching since 1972 and knows how to mix up his calls. He was part of the Jets defensive staff that beat the Patriots in the 2010 playoffs, and he authored the 41-14 defensive beatdown of the Patriots three years ago.
Like the Patriots, the Chiefs have the personnel to play man or several zone coverages, and the versatility up front to disguise the pass rush and drop guys off the line of scrimmage.
“They do a good job mixing it up,” said Belichick. “I mean, they’re just not going to sit in one thing all day.”
Sutton’s unit finished third in total defense and sixth in points allowed last year, and led the NFL in interceptions (18) and turnovers forced (33).
“They have coverage schemes where they have a lot of free players — you know, a guy reading the quarterback and everybody else playing man-to-man type of thing,” Belichick said. “So, kind of rovers back there that you’ve got to be careful with the pass rush.
“The quarterback can’t hold the ball and the quarterback starts to stare at the receivers and these free kind of roaming guys — linebackers or safeties, however they do it.”
Brady knows first-hand about those rovers. He got picked off by one in 2014 when safety Husain Abdullah snagged a pass over the middle and returned it 39 yards for a touchdown.
“It’s always like a little cat-and-mouse with safeties and quarterbacks,” Brady said. “When they’re roaming around, you can’t just stare them down where they’re right where you want to throw the ball.”
The Patriots and Chiefs are both smart and disciplined. They prepare well, they incorporate trick plays on offense, and they excel on special teams.
The only thing certain about Thursday night’s game is that it will have several new wrinkles that neither team expects.
“We haven’t seen that much on film this year — just a couple preseason games where most of the guys weren’t in there very long,” Brady said.
“They’ve got their defense. We’ve got our offense. It’s going to take a big effort. They’ve got great players at all levels of their defense, and we’re going to need to play great.”
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin
