The landscape once again returned to a fall or early spring-like appearance after milder air melted much of the snow. The amount of moisture since climatological winter began back on Dec. 1 has been formidable and we have more of it on the way.
It’s just an incredible pattern of storminess so far this winter, with a strong Pacific jet stream carrying moisture across the country, often merging it with Atlantic moisture and depositing the precipitation across New England.
Had temperatures been significantly colder in such a moist pattern, obviously we would have had a lot more snow. But a colder pattern likely would not have brought the same amount of moisture anyway, so sometimes those comparisons are not really valid.
The winter of 2024 is one of the wettest on record, with nearly a foot of moisture so far. Typically, we would have had about half this amount to date.
Another round of rain will cross the region overnight Thursday — and I’m expecting near a quarter of an inch, give or take a little bit. This can top off streams and rivers but any flooding would be minor at best.
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Temperatures will be cooling off as the warmer air gets shunted farther south over the next several days.
Friday’s highs in the mid to upper 40s are replaced by lower 40s for Saturday, which will be dry. Eventually, we will return to average or even a little colder-than-average temperatures early next week. There will be a break in the rainfall Friday afternoon into Saturday before we have to think about the next weather system.
Low pressure will ride northward from the Southern states over the weekend, eventually parking itself east of New England before heading into Atlantic Canada. On this track, precipitation that’s going to begin as rain will transition over to snow as colder air works back into the region Sunday night and Monday.
I think there’s a fairly strong probability that accumulating snow is going to occur. There’s a lot of uncertainty into the amount of snow, however.
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The map below shows the jet stream early Monday across the Northern Hemisphere. The warmer colors are indicative of the stronger winds associated with a jet stream.
Think of a jet stream as basically a hose of fast-moving air snaking across the middle latitudes of the planet. In general terms there are two jet streams: the subtropical jet and the polar jet. These can merge at times and become one. The strongest winds right now are associated with the jet stream coming across the Pacific — some of those winds will be over 200 miles an hour in the coming days.
It’s also going to determine how long the snow lasts once the changeover begins. Those are the elements forecasters will be working on to start the weekend and certainly by Friday afternoon and Saturday, we will have a much better idea on how impacted the Monday morning commute is going to be.