WALTHAM — Who will win the Massachusetts presidential primary on Tuesday? For the answer, look to this diverse city of 62,832 people, which has somehow managed to near-perfectly mirror the votes of the entire state in recent Democratic presidential primaries.
A Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV bellwether poll of likely Waltham voters suggests Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren is probably poised for victory. The survey found a statistical tie, with Sanders leading 23 percent to Warren’s 22.3 percent, with the difference within the poll’s margin of error.
Three other candidates were effectively tied: Mike Bloomberg at 14 percent, and Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden at 13 percent.
Waltham has historically been representative of the state, voting in the same manner, with the same rankings, as Massachusetts in the last three contested Democratic presidential primaries, in 2004, 2008, and 2016.
“They’re not always 100 percent accurate, but they’re remarkable how close they’ve been,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. Waltham’s poll results closely resembled those of a statewide poll released Saturday.
Demographics may be partly why, Paleologos said, although Waltham is slightly more diverse than the state. The city is 14 percent Latino, 6 percent Black, and 12 percent Asian.
Eleven miles northwest of Boston along the Charles River, Waltham is home to Brandeis University and Bentley University. Once famous for its Waltham Watch Co. factory, established in 1854, it’s sometimes still known as Watch City.
The poll, conducted Wednesday through Saturday with live callers surveying voters on both cellphones and landlines, was just a snapshot in time and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points. Voters — even some of those polled — said they were still making up their minds.
Last week, Maggie Emberlin, 38, a physical therapist, thought she was going to vote for Warren, but after seeing Warren’s fifth-place finish in the South Carolina primary, she grew concerned with the senator’s ability to beat Trump in November. Now, she’s reconsidering which Democrat to support.
“If that is how a different part of the country is really feeling about her, I find that concerning,” Emberlin said. “I align with Warren the most, but I would vote for nearly any of them because I feel so strongly that Trump is so bad for our country and the world.”
Another Waltham resident, Shelley Drowns, 69, a retired health care analytics professional, said she had changed her vote from Sanders to Warren because she decided to change from voting “for strategy,” to voting “for heart.” Her heart is with Warren, she said, because of the senator’s economic policies and emphasis on protecting consumers from Wall Street banks and wealthy corporations.
“She’s fought them and she will keep fighting them because they’re fighting to get their larger and larger piece of the pie ‚" Drowns said. "She’s the one who really gets it.”
Another Waltham voter who responded to the poll, Christina Chew, a middle-aged pharmaceutical analyst, said she supported Warren but could understand why Sanders was so popular.
“A lot of people are on the ‘feel-the-Bern wagon’ because of free education . . . but there’s got to be a way to pay for it," Chew said. “Elizabeth Warren is very pragmatic; she’s really thoughtful and methodical. I think a lot of men don’t like her because she has this hold-no-hostage attitude, but I like that. The country needs that.”
On Moody Street in Waltham on Sunday, elderly couples were eating brunch, mothers were pushing strollers in a grocery store, and college students were shopping at a thrift store. At the Los Primos 3 barbershop, the men cracked jokes in Spanish over Latin music.
“I like universal health care — Bernie’s idea is a good idea,” said Gilbert Gonzales, 30, a landscaper who was getting a haircut. But, he added, he would wait to decide until Tuesday.
Two 70-year-old women walking together felt passionate about each of their respective candidates.
Kathy Felgran, a retired real estate sales agent who is Jewish, said she, too, likes Sanders because he has criticized Israel’s treatment of Palestinians.
She said she also likes Sanders’s "point that society should care about all of its people — the loss of the middle class is disgusting. The ‘one percent’ is running everything.”
Her friend, Anne Civetta, a retired human resources director, said she had already voted for Warren. “She’s very direct — I like her,” Civetta said. “Bernie hasn’t come up with numbers that are credible.”
Many voters said they considered the ability to beat Trump crucial.
Ron Hershkowitz, 75, a lawyer, said he liked Sanders most but planned to vote for Joe Biden, the former vice president.
“He has the best chance of beating Trump,” Hershkowitz said, though he acknowledged that Biden faces an uphill battle to win the nomination. “Bernie will probably win, but he just has too much baggage" to defeat Trump.
Crossing the street, Sorayda Rivera, 35, said all she cared about was Trump leaving the White House. “He has too much power," she said in Spanish, “and he acts on racism.”
Naomi Martin can be reached at naomi.martin@globe.com.