Despite a pandemic, a movement for racial justice, wildfires, and more, the race for president has been remarkably stable since the spring. Now, Election Day is less than a month away and polls released in recent days are showing former vice president Joe Biden expanding his lead over President Trump following the first debate.
Here’s a look at recent polls from key swing states, as well as the nation as a whole:
Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Florida: Quinnipiac University, released Oct. 7
A set of Quinnipiac University polls in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Florida released on Wednesday all found Biden leading Trump among likely voters, with Biden clearing the 50 percent support mark in the three states.
In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac found Biden leading Trump 54 percent to 41 percent in the poll. In Iowa, Biden had 50 percent support to Trump’s 45 percent, and in Florida Biden led Trump 51 percent to 40 percent. All three polls were conducted from Oct. 1 to Oct. 5 among roughly 1,200 likely voters in each state. Trump announced his COVID-19 diagnosis early in the morning on Oct. 2, so some voters who responded to the poll were not yet aware of it.
Forty-six percent of Pennsylvania voters who responded to the poll said last week’s presidential debate made them think less favorably of Trump. Quinnipiac pollsters found a similar response in Iowa and Florida, where 45 percent and 44 percent, respectively, said they view Trump less favorably following the raucous debate.
The margin of error for each poll was plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Ohio and Nevada: New York Times/Siena College, released Oct. 7
Biden and Trump are statistically tied in Ohio, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, which found Biden with 45 percent support to Trump’s 44 percent among likely voters.
In Nevada, the poll found Biden leading Trump 48 percent to 42 percent.
The Times/Siena poll was in the field Oct. 2 to Oct. 6 and was conducted among 661 Ohio voters and 660 Nevada voters. Both polls had a plus or minus 4.3 percentage-point margin of error.
Arizona: New York Times/Siena College, released Oct. 5
The Times/Siena poll released Monday found Biden leading Trump, 49 percent to 41 percent, in the traditionally GOP-dominated state of Arizona. The poll of 655 likely voters was taken Oct. 1 to Oct. 3 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Nationwide: CNN/SSRS, released Oct. 6
A poll released Tuesday from CNN found that Trump was trailing Biden by a whopping 16 points among likely voters nationwide. The poll, which surveyed just over 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, found Biden with 57 percent support to Trump’s 41 percent. The poll was conducted from Oct. 1 through Oct. 4th.
Fifty two percent of voters surveyed in the CNN/SSRS poll said they had a favorable view of Biden, up from 48 percent in September, compared to 39 percent who had a favorable view of Trump.
Latest polling averages
In addition to individual nationwide polls, it can be useful to look at polling averages, which factor in dozens of polls from a variety of sources and methodologies, and are updated daily. The realclearpolitics.com and fivethirtyeight.com national polling averages both show Biden pulling away from Trump in recent days.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the RCP polling average had Biden leading Trump nationally, 51.4 percent to 42 percent, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. Fivethirtyeight’s average was similar, with Biden up 51.6 percent to Trump’s 42.2 percent, a difference 9.4 points, identical to RCP.
Christina Prignano can be reached at christina.prignano@globe.com. Follow her @cprignano.