In some ways, the 2021 Kentucky Derby field has already been judged. It’s not that good.
Mostly what’s missing is Life is Good, a phenomenal colt who won all three of his starts impressively, with speed figures that dwarf this field of 20 3-year-olds. Life is Good will miss the Triple Crown races because of an ankle injury.
The Churchill Downs starting gate will be filled mostly with horses who have similar but below-average speed figures compared with Derby winners.
That includes the favorite, Essential Quality, who is undefeated in five races but hasn’t been dazzling-fast and whose last workout left experts wondering whether he’s in peak condition.
Not surprisingly, this is a balanced field, with many horses having an opportunity to win. The pace should be fast, which could help the late runners unless they have traffic problems in the big field.
As is almost always the case, there’s money to be made. But if you’re looking for greatness, wait for the Travers in August when Life Is Good and Flight Line (who has raced only once but has a speed figure that is multiple lengths better than this field) could meet.
A look at this year’s field, in post position order:
1. Known Agenda
Odds: 6-1
Jockey: Irad Ortiz
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breakdown: The owner, Vinnie Viola, also owns the Florida Panthers and part of Derby-winning Always Dreaming (2017). Known Agenda looked like a Derby contender when winning the Florida Derby in his last race, but he is stuck in the dreaded No. 1 post, which is a disadvantage at Churchill Downs.
2. Like the King
Odds: 50-1
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Breakdown: He won the Jeff Ruby Steaks in his last, but that was on a synthetic track. Also, his trainer is known more for winning with 2-year-olds or sprinters on the grass.
3. Brooklyn Strong
Odds: 50-1
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Trainer: Daniel Velazquez
Breakdown: He trains at Parx, just outside of Philadelphia, so he’s off the beaten path. He has raced only once in 2021 and was up the track in the Wood Memorial.
4. Keepmeinmind
Odds: 50-1
Jockey: David Cohen
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro
Breakdown: One respected professional horse player, Mike Maloney, feels this long shot could surprise, although he’d recommend using the late-runner in the underneath positions in exotic wagers.
5. Sainthood
Odds: 50-1
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breakdown: Just won his first race Feb. 13, then ran second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Despite the skill of his trainer, it would be a huge upset.
6. O Besos
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza
Trainer: Greg Foley
Breakdown: Foley is a journeyman who races regularly in Kentucky, so it’s a big moment for him. His horse’s best result was a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby.
7. Mandaloun
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breakdown: A mystery horse. No one, including Cox, has been able to explain his poor performance in the Louisiana Derby. He’s royally bred, there’s no question he can go the 1¼-mile distance, and he has won three of five lifetime starts. He has been outstanding in his recent workouts.
8. Medina Spirit
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breakdown: Baffert should have had the favorite with Life Is Good; now this horse is his only chance. He’ll be near the front from the beginning, and has never been worse than second in five starts. His best victory was in the Robert Lewis back in January.
9. Hot Rod Charlie
Odds: 8-1
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Breakdown: Finished second behind Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was an impressive winner of the Louisiana Derby in his last start.
10. Midnight Bourbon
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breakdown: He has been consistent in two ways: He has never been worse than third in seven starts, but he also has never been truly impressive the way you like to see in a possible Derby winner. Could be part of the early pace.
11. Dynamic One
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breakdown: He has won only one race, but has a second-place finish in the Wood Memorial. That race, however, is being downgraded for its quality.
12. Helium
Odds: 50-1
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer: Mark Casse
Breakdown: Casse is a highly respected trainer, but there are many questions about why he has not entered Helium in a race since March 6 when he won the Tampa Bay Derby, his only race of 2021. Helium has won all three of his races, and Casse feels he’ll perform better with the long rest.
Odds: 50-1
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Victoria Oliver
Breakdown: In this era of lightly raced 3-year-olds, Hidden Stash is a regular iron horse with seven starts. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to find any reasons in those races to project him as the winner of the Derby.
14. Essential Quality
Odds: 2-1
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breakdown: A deserving favorite, undefeated in five starts and last year’s 2-year-old champion, with a top-shelf owner (global power Godolphin), jockey, and trainer. His last workout didn’t inspire a lot of confidence, but there are some, including Cox, who feel it’s not indicative of his potential performance.
15. Rock Your World
Odds: 5-1
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: John Sadler
Breakdown: Undefeated in three races, his last victory was in the Santa Anita Derby and his speed figure was outstanding. His other two victories were on grass. Sadler, however, has a history of failing when shipping horses out of his home base in Southern California. Rock Your World will be part of the early pace.
16. King Fury
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Breakdown: He has raced only once in 2021 but won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, which is highly unusual for a Derby horse. He does have two victories at Churchill Downs, however.
17. Highly Motivated
Odds: 10-1
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breakdown: Has raced only twice this year. He finished a dull third in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, but then he gave Essential Quality some tough competition before relenting near the wire in the Blue Grass Stakes. That could indicate he’s ready to really improve in his third start. Some experts doubt his ability to win at 1¼ miles.
18. Super Stock
Odds: 30-1
Jockey: Rafael Santana Jr.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breakdown: An upset winner of the Arkansas Derby when he benefitted from ideal conditions, tracking a fast pace and then moving past the front-runners. He would need another good setup with a fast pace and clear sailing.
19. Soup and Sandwich
Odds: 30-1
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Mark Casse
Breakdown: Owner Charlotte Weber, who races under the stable name Live Oak Plantation, is the heir to the Campbell’s Soup fortune and often gives her horses playful names in that vein. It also probably means the horse will be over-bet. He had a decent second-place finish in the Florida Derby after winning his first two races.
20. Bourbonic
Odds: 30-1
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breakdown: At 72-1, he came charging down the stretch to win the Wood Memorial. He’s still not highly regarded, but has won three of his last four races and might get a fast pace to help his running style.
Prediction
1. Mandaloun, 2. Rock Your World, 3. Essential Quality.
Joe Sullivan can be reached at josephsullivan1974@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeSullivan