With less than three weeks until primary elections begin in earnest around the country, we do seem to know a few things. First, Republicans seeking high-profile posts such as congressman, senator or governor all feel that if they can get the nomination, they have a good chance of winning the general election in Republican and swing states. It’s shaping up to be a good year for the GOP. Second, we know that these Republican primaries are defined by largely one person and his agenda: Donald Trump.
But here is what we don’t really know: whether being seen as the most pro-Trump candidate translates into being the nominee, as it once nearly guaranteed. The answers may vary.
In some contests, the endorsement of the former president now ensconced in Palm Beach appears to be a boon. In the North Carolina US Senate race, the campaign of Trump-endorsed Representative Ted Budd is now surging, even though a former Republican governor is also running. In the Nevada Senate race, Trump’s pick, Adam Laxalt, is leading by a two-to-one margin over his primary challenger. Trump has influenced races in less obvious ways, too, such as when he endorsed Florida Senator Marco Rubio, shutting down any primary challenges.
In Ohio and Missouri, where candidates are trying to out-Trump each other, he hasn’t weighed in yet but his endorsement could make a difference for some candidate.
On the other hand, there are contests where Trump’s endorsement hasn’t worked. In Georgia, Trump essentially recruited former US senator David Perdue to run against Governor Brian Kemp in the primary. Kemp has led every poll there since the beginning.
In the Alabama Senate race, Trump endorsed Representative Mo Brooks early, but the campaign never took off. Trump withdrew his endorsement.
In Pennsylvania, Trump’s surprise endorsement of television doctor Mehmet Oz over the weekend was met with strong derision by Trump devotees in that state, suggesting Trump may not be able to control his flock as he once did. This isn’t the first time this has happened. Many in Trump’s world felt that the former president also messed up by picking the wrong candidate for the Nashville congressional race. Now it’s unclear whether she is even eligible to be on the ballot.
Especially dear to Trump’s heart is Wyoming’s congressional race, where incumbent Liz Cheney is trying to overcome a primary challenge against a candidate backed by Trump. Yet this week, Cheney reported that she raised nearly $3 million during the first three months of 2022. That haul came after Cheney outraised her opponent 10 to 1 last year.
Yes, like many election years, each contest is different because the candidates are different and the voters are different. Yet the Republican Party has rarely been so unified as they have been in backing Trump in recent years.
Trump is undeniably the biggest factor at the moment in Republican primaries – where his endorsement or lack of one is the biggest development of the contest. But it’s unclear what his impact will be on those contests, which raises the bigger question: whether his hold on the party will continue.
James Pindell is a Globe political reporter who reports and analyzes American politics, especially in New England.