Five thoughts on the Patriots ahead of Thursday night’s showdown against the Bills . . .
1. Shoutout to the NFL scheduling overlords for leaving both Bills-Patriots matchups for the final third of the season, making for some great divisional drama.
“I can’t believe it’s this late in the season and we’re just playing them now for the first time,” said Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver. “That’s kind of weird. But it’s a divisional game. We have to have our stuff together.”
Added Bills safety Jordan Poyer, “Rolling into late November and December, these games obviously start to mean a lot more.”
The power in the AFC East has shifted since Tom Brady left the Patriots. The Patriots, who had won 11 straight division titles at the time of Brady’s departure, now sit in last place, while the Bills are looking to finish first for the third straight year.
Given the improved competition all around — the Dolphins are surging as the conference’s No. 2 seed and, despite the drama with quarterback Zach Wilson, even the previously bottom-dwelling Jets are not the cakewalk they once were — the Patriots had better get used to being the hunters rather than the hunted.
The Bills wouldn’t bite on any questions this week about their rivalry with the Patriots, nor would they say much about the changing dynamic within the division. But even if they don’t want to acknowledge it, the results speak for themselves.
There are still six regular-season games remaining on the schedule, yet Thursday night should have a playoff-like atmosphere. A victory for the Patriots would obviously boost their dimming chances of advancing to the postseason, but they also probably want to assert themselves after getting embarrassed in the past two meetings.
The Bills, meanwhile, need a win if they want to reclaim their spot atop the division and potentially contend for the conference’s No. 1 seed.
“We know they’re going to be hungry, hungry to beat us,” Poyer said. “This is what NFL football is about.”
2. According to FiveThirtyEight, the 6-5 Patriots have a 38 percent chance of earning a playoff berth. Although a loss to the Bills would drop those chances to 25 percent, the outcome of Thursday’s game is not the be-all and end-all.
How I see it: The Patriots essentially must win four of their final six games in order to become a wild-card team. They would still need a bit of help, but a 10-7 record would put them in the best position. So, against Buffalo twice, Arizona, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and Miami, can the Patriots earn four victories?
It’s possible but seems unlikely. The loss to the Bears may come back to bite them.
Owner Robert Kraft was not shy about expressing his displeasure earlier this year that the Patriots haven’t won a playoff game in three years. If they don’t make the postseason and finish last in their division, I would be curious to see if his remarks are even more pointed.
3. Outside linebacker Matthew Judon leads the AFC in Pro Bowl votes at his position, which is not surprising because he leads the league in sacks with 13.
“He’s a game-wrecker right now,” said Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Judon, who is looking to make the Pro Bowl for the fourth straight year, has taken over as one of the faces of the organization, despite his short tenure. His production and personality make for a strong combination.
Center David Andrews, return specialist Marcus Jones, kicker Nick Folk, safety Devin McCourty, and special teamer Matthew Slater rank in the top 10 in Pro Bowl voting at their positions, too. Of that group, I would venture to guess that only Jones would end up participating in the festivities if invited, but maybe McCourty and Slater go one more time for old times’ sake.
4. At this point of the year, college players have wrapped up their seasons or are preparing for a bowl game. The NFL schedule, however, is only in Week 13.
Cornerback Jack Jones, Marcus Jones, special teamer Brenden Schooler, left guard Cole Strange, and wide receiver Tyquan Thornton have carved out roles of varying degree as rookies, but Jack Jones and Strange have played the most snaps by far. Because the grind of an NFL workload is much more taxing on one’s body, I’m curious to see how they hold up.
5. After an underwhelming performance against the Vikings, it’s hard not to think of last year’s defensive collapse — and whether it’s going to happen again this year.
Thursday’s game will be an important data point. First, will the Bills actually punt after not doing so in the teams’ past two meetings?
“We understand as a team that what we did last year has no effect and is not going to help us in any way in this upcoming game,” Allen said.
The Bills, for their part, had plenty of praise for the Patriots’ defense.
“It’s been put together the right way,” said coach Sean McDermott. “They’ve got guys up front that can handle the run by themselves at times. They’ve got physical linebackers that play downhill. And they’ve got a group of cover guys in the back — let’s just call it seven — that do multiple things. They match up, they have different coverage packages and disguises, they do a great job.”
The Patriots’ defense ranks near the top of the league in important statistical categories (total yards allowed, points allowed, takeaways), but they did so last year and still faltered down the stretch. With no shortage of top-tier talent left on the schedule, we’ll see if this year is any different.
Nicole Yang can be reached at nicole.yang@globe.com. Follow her on X @nicolecyang.