Let’s be up front about Sunday’s Super Bowl because that’s where the game is going to be decided, up front by the mastodons manning the line of scrimmage for the Chiefs and Eagles.
It’s easy to be seduced by the star power and skill-position talent of the teams left standing. You have the best quarterback in the game in Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, who is beyond comparison to contemporary QBs and now being measured against the all-time greats at the position. His counterpart, Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, is a dual-threat dynamo who is 16-1 this season as a starter.
There’s talkative Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, who finished second in the NFL in touchdown grabs. Beware of Philadelphia’s dynamic wide receiver duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who both finished in the top 10 in receiving yards and combined for 18 TD receptions. Overlooking Eagles running back Miles Sanders, who finished fifth in the NFL with 1,269 rushing yards and averaged 4.9 yards per carry, would be a mistake.
But when the confetti falls on State Farm Field and the Lombardi Trophy is lifted it’s going to be by the team that does the heavy lifting at the line of scrimmage, which will serve as the line of demarcation between winner and loser. That’s the marquee matchup. The game sports two of the best offensive lines in football and the defensive units that finished first and second in the NFL in sacks.
Want to know who is going to win this Super Bowl? Look to the line, not the one set by the wise guys in Las Vegas, but the one where the big fellows make their money. The Super Bowl is going to be won in the trenches, plain and simple and as unsexy as it sounds.
The latest Roman Numeral Rumble features the teams with the most combined sacks during the regular season in Super Bowl history, 125. The Eagles led the NFL with 70, third most since the sack became an official stat in 1982. The Chiefs finished second with 55, led by dominant tackle Chris Jones.
Mahomes is a magician, but even the greatest quarterbacks wilt under pass rush pressure. Philadelphia is the first team in NFL history to have four or more players with 10 sacks in a season — outside linebacker Haason Reddick (16), end Brandon Graham (11), tackle Javon Hargrave (11), and end Josh Sweat (11). Plus, there’s Eagles defensive line mainstay Fletcher Cox, who has been wrecking games for a decade.
According to Inside Edge NFL, the Eagles’ defense, which ranked first in the league against the pass, has hurried quarterbacks on 20 percent of pass attempts this season, best in the NFL.
Luckily for the Chiefs, pass blocking is the forte of an offensive line they’ve fortified since they last appeared in the Super Bowl, losing to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers three years ago.
It’s strength against strength.
The Chiefs ranked second in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt, allowing sacks on 3.99 percent. Only the Buccaneers, with Brady compensating for a permeable offensive line, ranked higher.
Led by former Patriot Joe Thuney at left guard, the Chiefs had the highest pass block win rate in the NFL (75 percent), according to ESPN’s pass block win rate metric. Thuney (99 percent) and Chiefs center Creed Humphrey (98 percent) had the highest pass block win rates at their positions.
KC’s offensive line isn’t just a finesse group. Surprisingly, it rated third in run block win rate (74 percent), just behind … the Eagles at 75 percent.
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has long subscribed to the philosophy of building his teams around outstanding line play.
The best way to stop MVP Mahomes is to relegate him to spectator status on his sideline. The Eagles’ offense is equipped to do that by running behind a line anchored by stalwarts Jason Kelce at center and Lane Johnson at right tackle, holdovers from the last time the Eagles confronted an elite quarterback in a Super Bowl, upsetting Brady and the Patriots.
It’s no coincidence that the Eagles are 12-0 when rushing for 100 or more yards, and their 39 rushing touchdowns, including the postseason, are an NFL record.
The most impressive aspect of the Eagles’ offensive line is allowing the team to run the ball in situations most teams wouldn’t.
According to Inside Edge, the Eagles have run on 41 percent of third downs. That’s the highest in the NFL; the league average is 25 percent. NFL Next Gen Stats paints an even more impressive picture.
The Eagles turned to a designed run on a league-high 32 percent of third-and-medium (between 3 and 6 yards to gain) situations. They generated first downs on more than half of those (12 of 23). Of the 11 they failed to convert, Philly went for it on fourth down eight times and picked up six first downs.
Why not? The highest run block win rate of any guard belongs to Philadelphia left guard Landon Dickerson (80 percent) and the second highest among tackles was earned by left tackle Jordan Mailata (83 percent).
It’s a different group of players with a different coach, but it’s hard to forget how the Birds played bully ball against the Patriots in Super Bowl LII behind a similarly stellar O-line.
In that Miserable Minnesota Mall Super Bowl, Philadelphia rushed for 6.1 yards a carry and totaled 164 yards and a touchdown. Philly was 12 of 18 on third and fourth downs, including 2 for 2 on fourth. One of those fourth-down conversions came on the go-ahead touchdown drive. The Eagles scored on their final five possessions.
That offensive line excellence more than made up for the quarterback gap between Nick Foles and Brady.
The Eagles’ offensive line should’ve been voted collective Super Bowl MVP. It was a clinic. New England couldn’t stop the run, didn’t muster a single sack, and registered just five QB hits on 44 pass attempts.
A Philly facsimile of that effort could make it a long evening for Andy Reid’s Chiefs.
It’s all on the line in this Super Bowl in every sense of the word.
Christopher L. Gasper is a Globe columnist. He can be reached at christopher.gasper@globe.com. Follow him @cgasper and on Instagram @cgaspersports.