Fox News is the most influential media outlet in the country. Tucker Carlson, one of the network’s primetime hosts, was the most influential person in all of cable news.
Not only have Fox News and Carlson long been the cable news leaders in terms of ratings, but they drive a political message that has seeped into the veins of the American body politic.
Want to know why one red state after another is passing legislation about drag queen storytimes? Because of Carlson. Want to know why there’s a focus on “woke corporations”? Because of Carlson. Want to know why Republicans talked so much about critical race theory during the midterms? Or why some believe there were FBI plants inside of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol? Or why Republicans have soured on their support of Ukraine over the past year? In every case, it was because of Carlson.
That’s why Monday’s announcement that Carlson was out at Fox News, not even allowed to to say goodbye to his millions of viewers, came as a shock. There was no indication anyone saw it coming. Carlson ended his show on Friday sounding upbeat, telling his viewers he would see them again this week.
The Washington Post reports that his departure had something to do with private messages Carlson sent about Fox management that were disclosed as part of the Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit, which settled last week for $787.5 million. The Los Angeles Times reports that it wasn’t the Dominion lawsuit that cost Carlson his job but a pending discrimination suit brought by from a former producer.
Whatever the reason, Carlson’s departure was seen, by some, as a big deal to the future of Fox News. But history provides no evidence that’s the case.
Many other hosts have had massively popular primetime shows on the network, and media critics predicted watershed moments at Fox when they left.
Remember how no one could ever replace Glenn Beck? (Except Carlson, sort of playing that role.) For that matter, Fox News was never going to be the same after Bill O’Reilly was fired. Then Megyn Kelly used that spot for a fresher and more relevant show before landing a massive contract with NBC. But Kelly was simply irreplaceable — until Carlson took the slot and became the most important person in cable news.
In the decades that Fox News has been on the air, the network has made the stars — the stars don’t make the network. It’s rarely like this. Consider the tanking ratings after Rachel Maddow stopped doing her MSNBC show nightly. CNN is still struggling to figure out its 9 p.m. slot after they parted ways with Chris Cuomo 16 months ago. (Fox News hasn’t announced who will replace Carlson, and for the moment there will be a rotation of guest hosts.)
The Fox News formula is so successful that it continues to dominate after the departure of major stars — and even after longtime leader Roger Ailes left the company in 2016. That moment, too, was also supposed to represent a new day for Fox. It didn’t.
What is true, however, is that Carlson leaving the network is probably the third biggest thing that could happen to the 2024 Republican presidential campaign. Only Trump dropping out or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis foregoing a run would have a bigger impact.
Carlson’s show did not just set the topics for what candidates would discuss — he has literally shaped the contest already. It is unlikely that Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who is suddenly polling ahead of several governors, would even be running without his appearances on Carlson’s show. Another new candidate, talk show host Larry Elder, made his presidential campaign announcement on Carlson’s show last week.
And who knows, now that Carlson’s out of a job, maybe the best move to save face is to explore a presidential run himself, something openly discussed before. If he does, he’ll be begging whoever takes his old timeslot to have him on to talk about it.
After all, that new show will likely be a ratings leader — just as it always has been.
James Pindell is a Globe political reporter who reports and analyzes American politics, especially in New England.