It’s another day and it’s another set of data on the potential for this upcoming winter storm that New England will be facing.
Until we get to the Saturday night and Sunday time frame, things look generally dry. Temperatures will be in the 40s on Wednesday, near 40 on Thursday and staying in the 30s for Friday. The colder air on Friday will be a good setup for that snow this weekend.
The guidance that meteorologists all use to help us forecast continues to show the potential for several inches of snow on the ground by the end of the day Sunday. The strength of the storm, of course, and the exact track, are going to determine whether or not we see a few inches or over 6 inches of snow.
The latest European model as of Wednesday afternoon gives a high likelihood of 6 inches or more of snow. If this trend continues, winter storm watches would likely be issued late Thursday or early Friday morning.
This storm could make for a messy drive for New England Patriots fans attending Sunday’s 1 p.m. game against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.
I love the map above that the National Weather Service in Norton created, showing forecasting errors. This is the reason why most people are not committing to any accumulation at this point. It’s still only Wednesday and the first flakes are over three days away.
Even with some level of uncertainty, I do have pretty high confidence that the plows are probably going to need to come out in most areas, and there’s the potential for this to be a sizable snowstorm if it is strong enough.
It’s likely snow starts falling Saturday evening and continues much of the day on Sunday. With a stronger event, the snow would be coming down quite heavy during the day and travel would be disrupted for a few hours, especially during the first half of Sunday.
There’s still some discrepancy on the amount of moisture forecast, but the average gives much of the area about half an inch of precipitation — which would, if it was all snow, translate into a 3- to 8-inch snowstorm. At this point, that’s probably a safe bet, but remember, it’s only Wednesday and it’s a rough estimate at this point.
A rain/snow line is likely somewhere along the coast, which would impact accumulation. Water temperatures are still relatively mild, running in the 40s.
An east wind off the ocean could change the snow to rain in Boston. The map below shows the most likely scenario based on the current set of data. Notice that much of the area is going to see mainly snow even if there’s a short change. For those of you on Cape Cod, it looks like a mainly rain event.
While the storm is certainly the most interesting forecasting challenge looking toward the weekend, there is one other item that is worth a quick mention.
The Quadrantid meteor shower will be peaking early Thursday. There will also be moonlight and potential clouds, so you would have to be somewhere dark and get lucky if you want to take a look at it, but the best times will be just before dawn.
Next week continues the active pattern with a strong storm likely in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. This one appears to be milder with wind and rain a higher probability than snow as of now.