Throughout American history, presidential candidates have chosen vice presidential running mates for various reasons. Sometimes it was to secure the nomination at a convention; create balance geographically, ideologically, by gender, or by age; shake up a campaign; or simply find the best governing partner.
However, Kamala Harris, given her race, gender, and lack of a defined ideological brand, doesn’t have to worry about any of that. Indeed, the decision for Harris in selecting a running mate this late in the campaign appears to be based on one thing: who can help her win.
Former president Donald Trump’s selection last week clearly had different considerations. He wanted someone loyal first and foremost, fully dedicated to the MAGA brand, who looked the part, could help raise money, and could potentially use his Midwestern bonafides to help win a state or two.
In other words, Trump was looking for a matrix of qualities and ended up with 39-year-old JD Vance, the Ohio senator.
For Harris, it is just a clean, cold political calculation.
Because this decision appears so strategic, it is much easier for those of us at home to play along. After all, while it might be nice for Harris to have a good rapport with her pick, that is not the assignment Biden gave her.
The assignment was to simply win and, as Democrats would argue, save American democracy in the process by preventing a second Trump term.
As a result, the shortlist of candidates being discussed is purely political and includes a lot of white men from strategically important spots. Though, as we will find below, some are more important than others.
Let’s explore the vice presidential options:
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
Pros: If we are going purely on strategy, Shapiro tops the list. There are seven swing states at the moment, and none have as many electoral votes as Pennsylvania. Shapiro, 51, has won Pennsylvania three times statewide, including his single term as governor in 2022. Before that, he was elected as a county official in one of the biggest swing counties in the country.
He is politically talented on the stump and has governed as a centrist.
Cons: Picking Shapiro could upset two groups important to the Democratic base. He is a huge proponent of charter schools, making him somewhat of a villain to teachers unions. Shapiro, who is Jewish, is also a very big supporter of Israel at a time when many in the party are not, especially the Arab American community in the swing state of Michigan.
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
Pros: He flew combat missions and is a former astronaut. He is married to former Democratic representative Gabby Giffords, who became a folk hero in Democratic circles after she was shot while holding a town hall and then led a gun control organization. He also comes across well as a grown-up compared with other rising stars.
And he is from Arizona, a swing state.
Cons: From a purely strategic sense, Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in play are fewer than Pennsylvania’s 19. In this campaign, eight electoral votes are huge.
Then there is Kelly’s Senate seat. He comes from a swing state and was seen as a huge recruiting get, winning the state twice in both a special election and a regular general election. Arizona has a Democratic governor who would likely fill the seat with a Democrat, should the Harris/Kelly ticket win. But then it would be up in 2026.
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
Pros: North Carolina presents the best chance for Democrats to flip a state that Trump won in 2020. Biden barely lost it that year. This year Republicans have a controversial candidate for governor potentially limiting Republican appeals to independent voters. Democrats are investing heavily to grab the state’s 16 electoral votes.
Cooper has not only won statewide six times — involving runs for both governor and attorney general — but he also reportedly had a good relationship with Harris when both served as state attorneys general.
Cons: North Carolina is still not the same size as Pennsylvania, nor is it a must-win for Democrats. It is a reach state, and Trump has been handily up all year over Biden.
Also, if Harris wants to make a generational change argument to the ticket as a bonus, Cooper is 67.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
Pros: Here is the story of a two-term governor who beat really good Republican candidates in a very Republican state. In 2023, he won reelection by running firmly on an abortion-rights platform, and his representation of an Appalachian state pairs well against Vance.
Cons: Beshear simply doesn’t help Democrats win anywhere. Kentucky only has eight electoral votes and last voted for a Democrat in 1996.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
Pros: She is liked by many in the Democratic base. She represents a swing state that she helped make entirely blue for the first time in decades. Two women on the ticket double down on a campaign message about abortion and would make history.
Cons: Democrats are already making history with a Black and South Asian woman leading the ticket. Michigan isn’t as big as Pennsylvania in terms of electoral votes. Harris simply leading the ticket could be enough to turn out Black voters to swing the state. Also, Whitmer said this week on camera she has no interest in the job.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg
Pros: Buttigieg is among the most talented people currently in politics. He has intellectual and rhetorical skills and would likely be solid in a debate or any portfolio he is given.
Cons: Buttigieg, a former Indiana mayor who has moved residency to Michigan, has no political base. What he has is a liberal/Wall Street/LGBTQ+ donation base, but Harris already has that in many ways. Beyond being good on camera and the stump, it is unclear where and how he can help the ticket win. Remember, the last seat he was elected to was mayor of South Bend, Ind.
James Pindell is a Globe political reporter who reports and analyzes American politics, especially in New England.