The switch from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris on the Democratic ticket in July has brought enthusiasm, an infusion of campaign cash, and a significant bump in polling. This shift has positioned Democrats in a dead heat nationally and in key swing states, where Biden appeared on a path to lose.
However, the fundamentals haven’t changed. The path to 270 electoral votes and the presidency still hinges on who can win seven key battleground states. Neither Harris nor former president Donald Trump has a clear advantage.
That may be about to change.
There’s something stirring in Northern Maine. While it’s not as impactful as flipping an entire swing state, Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances to flip a congressional district that awarded Trump a lone electoral vote in both 2016 and 2020.
If this happens, it could close one of Trump’s paths back to the White House.
But first, a quick civics refresher. The United States doesn’t elect its president through a popular vote like other offices. Under the Electoral College system, all but two states give all their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the state, even if by just a single vote. The exceptions are Nebraska and Maine, which allocate two votes to the overall state winner and one vote to the winner of each separate congressional district.
For political enthusiasts, attention on a single electoral vote has often focused on an Omaha-based district where Democrats have done well since Barack Obama carried it in 2008. Polls showed Biden narrowly winning there before he dropped out, and now Harris holds a solid seven-point lead. In other words, not much has changed in that district.
Meanwhile, less attention has been given to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where Trump won by 7 percentage points in 2020, earning a single electoral vote. Biden took the other three by winning Maine’s 1st Congressional District and the statewide vote.
However, a University of New Hampshire poll from late last month showed Harris now leading in the 2nd District, 49 percent to 44 percent, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
Then, on Friday, the Harris campaign sent its biggest surrogate yet to Maine. Gwen Walz, wife of vice presidential nominee Tim Walz, attended events in Bangor and Portland. Earlier this year, Democratic National Committee chair Jamie Harrison also visited the state.
“We’ve always thought we had a chance to flip the district, but there’s no question that there’s renewed energy since Kamala Harris began leading the ticket,” said Maine Democratic Party chair Bev Uhlenhake. “We think we have a real shot.”
On the other hand, Republicans and the Trump campaign seem to be taking the district — which includes western, northern, and DownEast Maine for granted.
“There’s a perception among many Republicans that Trump has it in the bag,” said Brent Littlefield, a Republican consultant who advised former Maine governor Paul LePage and Bruce Poliquin, the last Republican to win in the 2nd District.
Littlefield noted that this assumption may also be shared by Jared Golden, the Democratic representative for the district. Golden wrote in an op-ed before Biden dropped out that he believed Trump would win the election, adding that he was “OK with that.” He has yet to endorse Harris.
The lay of the land reflects what both parties believe. The Harris campaign claims they have 21 offices in the state and dozens of staffers, particularly in the 2nd District. In contrast, Trump has just one office in the state, located in Lewiston.
Despite Trump making repeated trips to Maine in 2016 and 2020 to secure that single electoral vote, neither he nor any major surrogates have campaigned there this year.
This could matter. In at least one scenario, Harris and Trump could end up tied at 269-269, and the nation might be left in suspense for days as Maine’s ranked-choice voting system re-tallies votes in Augusta if neither candidate secures a majority in the district on Election Day.
“Yes, all eyes would be on Maine in that scenario,” said Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat. “But we will be ready.”
James Pindell is a Globe political reporter who reports and analyzes American politics, especially in New England.