What makes Roman Anthony the top prospect in baseball?
The 20-year-old Red Sox outfielder received that designation from Baseball America earlier this month as he neared the end of a tremendous season in Double A Portland and Triple A Worcester. In recent days, several members of the baseball industry took stock of why Anthony was worthy of that best-of-the-best status.
The bat
Anthony had a standout season, producing a combined line of .291/.396/.498 with 54 extra-base hits and 19 steals in 119 games. In 35 games for Worcester since his promotion last month, he hit .344/.463/.519.
Despite being one of the youngest players in Triple A, he hit the ball harder than nearly anyone else at that level. Since his debut Aug. 13, he hit 21 balls with exit velocities of at least 105 miles per hour; no one else at the level has more than 17.
That alone would make him a standout prospect as a 20-year-old, but Anthony hits the ball ridiculously hard without selling out his approach. He doesn’t expand the strike zone, makes contact when he swings, limits his strikeouts (19 percent of plate appearances since his promotion), and walks frequently (19 percent).
While pulling the ball in the air has been a major emphasis this year, he still shows the ability to go with pitches and drive the ball to all fields.
“He’s foul pole to foul pole,” said Portland manager Chad Epperson.
Anthony also made major year-over-year strides against lefties, hitting .316/.414/.490 against southpaws this year. The lefthanded slugger seems capable of being a true everyday player.
Several evaluators project him, on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, as a 60-70 hitter with similar power grades, combining a table-setter’s ability to get on base with middle-of-the-order power.
“He has that really rare combo of elite bat speed, elite bat-to-ball skills, and really strong swing decisions,” said Red Sox director of hitting development Jason Ochart. “If you do those things really well, it’s just hard to be bad. You’re going to put balls in play, you’re going to hit the ball really hard, and for him to do that at the level he’s at, at his age, it’s special.”
Ochart noted that Anthony’s 90th percentile exit velocity — the average exit velocity of the top 10 percent of balls he’s put in play, a good indication of power — is 108.5 miles per hour, well above the MLB average of 104.3 and at the very top of minor league baseball. In Portland, he blasted a homer with an exit velocity of 116 m.p.h., the hardest-hit ball by any player at any level (including the big leagues) in the Sox organization this year.
“He’s a total outlier in terms of how hard he hits the ball, especially being as young as he is, and there’s more in the tank,” said Ochart. “It’s pretty freaking awesome.”
His all-around game
While Anthony’s hallmark is resounding contact, he cares deeply about other aspects, too.
“He embraces the little things of the game,” said Sox farm director Brian Abraham. “Running out of the box, taking the extra base, getting a better jump, better reads in the outfield — the small things that allow him to be a complete player. He has a lot of really special physical tools that he continues to improve upon and hone in on and sharpen.”
Anthony has mostly played center field but also has handled the corners well. Because of his size, most evaluators project him as a right fielder — with grades of average to plus for both his glove and arm.
Anthony has pursued both on- and off-field training to improve his speed, burst, and first-step reactions in hopes of proving he can stay in the middle of the field — something that would amplify his prospect stock.
For now, he’s unusually fast for being 6 feet 3 inches and 216 pounds. While he does run into outs, he is still refining his baserunning and pressures defenses by looking to take an extra base.
“When he gets up here, it will be good for him and [Jarren] Duran having that kind of symbiotic relationship where they both play every play as hard as they can,” said Sox reliever Liam Hendriks. “They run every ball out, they put the defense under pressure, and they’re going to cause some mayhem when they’re both in the lineup.”
The (young) person
Prospect performance is always measured against age, and Anthony is one of five players to reach Triple A this year in his age-20 season. In baseball years, he’s a baby.
He doesn’t look like one.
“I didn’t even know he was 20,” said a stunned Hendriks. “He’s an absolute unit.”
Anthony already has a big leaguer’s physique — a sign of his strength, conditioning, and nutrition work. Yet he’s young enough that he’ll likely get stronger.
“He hasn’t even gotten anywhere close to his grown-man strength,” said Sox shortstop Trevor Story. “He’s already a big kid, big frame. He’s just tapping into that strength. So I think he’s just scratching the surface.”
Moreover, players who excel in the upper levels when they’re young show that they’re quick learners, and capable of the sort of rapid growth that gives them a chance to get established quickly in the big leagues.
“Where he has surprised us isn’t necessarily the caliber of player he’s become,” said Sox assistant general manager Paul Toboni. “It’s really how quickly he’s made the adjustments that we’ve challenged him with making. He just turned 20 years old and he’s a step away from the big leagues.”
The fact that Anthony has never had a professional at-bat against a pitcher who is younger than he, yet has posted huge numbers, is telling. So, too, is his lack of satisfaction with what he’s done. Instead, he has a hunger for more coaching.
“I think what is actually going to separate him from being a good player and make him a great one is he’s very humble,” said WooSox bench coach José Flores, who compared Anthony’s makeup to that of Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber when they were in the minors. “You don’t get that type of player coming through a system too often.”
Epperson challenged Anthony in Portland in several ways. When the outfielder defaulted to playing very deep in center, Epperson told him to play closer in so he could find the edge of his range going back on balls. Epperson pushed Anthony to explode out of the batter’s box, and he started regularly producing hustle doubles.
“He’s been challenged, and he continues to answer those challenges,” said Epperson. “He’s still marinating. It’s cool to see, but I don’t think by any means he’s hit his stride yet.”
That sense is amplified by Anthony’s combination of confidence in his abilities and conviction and determination to improve.
“He just carries himself the right way,” said Story. “You talk to him, you feel like you’re talking to a guy that’s an All-Star, who’s been around for a long time. I’ve been so impressed by him, more than any other guy I’ve seen in a long time.
“He’s deserving of [No. 1 prospect billing]. He’s worked for it. He’s hungry. He wants to be the best. I think he’s going to be really good.”
His proximity to the big leagues
Anthony isn’t a highly touted draft pick who will need years to develop. The youngest player on the field also looked like the best player on the field throughout most of his time in Triple A.
In recent Red Sox history, Anthony might most closely resemble Xander Bogaerts given his combination of offensive tools, athleticism, size, and maturity. Bogaerts peaked as the No. 2 prospect in baseball and made his big league debut at age 20.
It remains to be seen whether the Sox give Anthony a chance to make the Opening Day roster in 2025 or give him more time to develop his game at the beginning of next year. Either way, a big league debut in 2025 is a near-certainty.
“If [you] could say he was going to be on the team out of spring training, I wouldn’t be surprised,” said 20-year big league veteran Rich Hill. “If you were going to say that he’s going to be an All-Star next year, it wouldn’t surprise me. In the running for Rookie of the Year? I wouldn’t be surprised.
“Well beyond his years in maturity, and I think that his ability and what he can do at the plate is, if not ready now, will be ready next year for the major league level.”
How does Anthony view his future? When does he think he’ll be ready for the big leagues?
“I’m 100 percent confident that I’ll be ready for whenever they call me,” said Anthony. “Going into the offseason, I’m going to give myself the best chance I can. I’ll be ready coming into spring training. I’m going to give myself the best chance that I can.”
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him @alexspeier.