The narrative of the 2024 election has so far been defined by a broad shift right in the electorate, with President-elect Donald Trump garnering higher vote shares in counties across the United States than he did in 2020. But that doesn’t mean he got dramatically more votes this time around. In many counties, data show Vice President Kamala Harris’ support failed to materialize at levels she needed to win.
Votes are still being tallied across the country, but a Globe analysis of results from counties where counting is largely complete shows a broad drop-off in Democratic votes, with 3.3 million fewer cast for the Democratic presidential ticket in 2024 than in 2020.
The apparent drop in turnout was harmful to Harris, particularly in counties where Trump also lost votes or only marginally increased his raw vote totals. In the 2,066 counties where Trump’s vote total fell or increased by 5 percent or less, Harris saw her vote totals decrease on average by more than 7.5 percent per county, while turnout in those counties was down 3 percent per county. Across these counties — which make up two-thirds of all counties with votes tallied — Trump added just over 225,000 votes, while Harris lost a staggering 2.15 million compared to 2020 levels.
And while most of those counties went for Trump in 2020, the disproportionate loss of votes for Democrats is telling across the board. Harris failed to flip a single county, and even in the counties she did win, she earned 2.3 million fewer votes than President Biden did in 2020, while Trump added more than 670,000, a net change of 2.9 million votes in the Republican’s favor.
The crucial swing state of Pennsylvania offers a striking example. In Philadelphia county, more than 36,000 votes evaporated for Harris from Biden’s 2020 level, but Trump only increased his vote totals over 2020 by about 11,000 votes.
There were 913 counties in which overall votes were down since 2020 as well as votes for each major party. In those counties, Harris felt the impact of that decline in turnout much more sharply than Trump — an indication that fewer Democrats turned out.
Across those 913 counties, Harris lost more than a million votes from the total that Biden garnered in 2020, a decline of about 10.8 percent on average per county. And while Trump’s total declined as well — slightly more than 400,000, or 3.74 percent per county — it was not nearly as drastic.
The trend held at the statewide level, too. In states where turnout was down, Harris lost more votes, sometimes huge amounts. In Massachusetts, Trump gained nearly 90,000 votes over 2020 — but Harris lost more than 240,000 compared to Biden.
Votes are still being tallied in California, Oregon, and elsewhere.
Christina Prignano of the Globe staff contributed.
John Hancock can be reached at john.hancock@globe.com. Follow him @Hancock_JohnD.