With a quick flip of the switch, our weather pattern has drastically shifted and the conditions ahead point to an active late-fall season with New England seeing multiple storm systems traverse the region. We’ll have a quick system on Tuesday and a potential winter storm making a close pass to New England on Thanksgiving Day.
The jet stream essentially has been pushed farther south with the storm track now closer to New England than it has been in a while. In fact, the jet stream will be well positioned most of this week to allow more systems to head our way. Meteorologists are watching one particular storm organizing out of the Great Plains that could possibly deliver a Thanksgiving Day or post-holiday nor’easter packing rain, snow and/or gusty winds across the region.
It’s still early and the forecast could certainly change, but the timing is looking like most of Thanksgiving through much of Friday morning could get messy.
The latest models are showing the storm either diving south of the region on Thanksgiving or the storm making a direct hit. Regardless, there’s good confidence that the jet stream will be bowed and try to parallel the coast, which could send the core of this low offshore as it nears New England to set up a more impactful storm.
In other words, this has the potential makings of a nor’easter.
A strong low-pressure system, a nor’easter is simply a storm setup with winds coming in from the northeast — it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re getting loads of heavy snow or rain. Right now, it’s looking like mostly rain in Boston and most of Massachusetts as well as Rhode Island and Connecticut and some snow in Western Mass. and up north. Remember, it’s still very early and this forecast could absolutely change.
The amount of precipitation will depend on how much moisture is available over the Northern Atlantic versus how cold the air is over land. This contrast creates instability — or rather, energy — in the atmosphere, with the relatively moist air rising rapidly and condensing into rain or snow. The latest trend has things pointing towards more rain than snow.
Regardless, it will be worth watching how things come together over coming days.
Thanksgiving-Black Friday storm
As of right now, most models have the core of this low skirting just off the Southern New England coast on Thanksgiving, which will make it interesting. It looks unlikely that this storm will be a large-scale snowstorm, but guidance does agree that there will be some messy weather spoiling travel plans, with rain, snow and gusty winds involved.
Southern New England forecast
This system should be mainly a rain event across Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts and Connecticut during Thanksgiving. It’s really too early to get into rain and snow totals but there should be enough cold air present, especially on the backside of the system to bring some sleet, ice, or snow at times into the picture across the hill towns of Central and Western Mass. We’ll see what track this storm takes, which will obviously dictate where the rain-snow line sets up.
If I had to commit to rain and snow totals, given all the variables at play here, I’d expect between 1 and 1½ inches of rain across Southern New England, with possibly 1 to 2 inches of snow across the western mountains of Massachusetts.
Windy conditions are likely, with gusts up to 25 to 30 miles per hour, especially along the coast.
Northern New England forecast
As of now, it does look like Northern New England may be in for a shot of snow Thursday and early Friday, but the trends for now show that snow may be concentrated to central and southern portions of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Uncertainty in the exact storm track may bring rain or a wintry mix to the area beginning early Thursday, with a switch over to snow for a prolonged stretch Thursday afternoon, and finally then a coin-flip on precipitation type Friday morning.
Again, if I had to throw out a snowfall range, I would say between 3 and 6 inches with some locally higher amounts potentially, but this is really just a guess with how many variables there are to consider with a storm that is still four days away.
The weather will shape up more clearly as we inch closer to the holiday, but make sure that you’re taking extra time on the roads and not rushing to your destination.
Chilly holiday weekend
Temperatures will trend downward by the holiday. An eventual Arctic chill will spread through New England this weekend, but Thanksgiving with likely see daily highs reach the mid to upper 40s across the southern tier and overnight lows near or below freezing.
Black Friday will likely see temperatures barely reach the mid-40s. The morning will be much cooler as shoppers head out before sunrise to grab some early holiday bargains.
By Saturday, our daily highs should be struggling to reach the 40-degree mark.
The upcoming storms, combined with the recent precipitation from late last week, are expected to help ease the severe drought conditions after an exceptionally dry fall — on Nov. 17, Boston broke a 110-year record for its driest fall. Months of high pressure dominated the region, leading to extremely dry conditions throughout New England and an unprecedented number of wildfires in Massachusetts.
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Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.