Guns are once again about to take center stage at the Rhode Island State House.
The House Judiciary Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing Wednesday at 2 p.m. on legislation that would ban assault-style firearms, and you can expect advocates on both sides to flood the building and make their case to lawmakers.
So where do things stand heading into Wednesday’s hearing?
We know that Governor Dan McKee included an assault weapons ban in his proposed budget for the fiscal year that begins July 1, and Senate President Dominick Ruggerio suggested before the legislative session started that he was more willing than he has been in the past to consider the proposal.
House Speaker Joe Shekarchi has repeatedly said he supports the ban, but he has raised constitutional questions about the way McKee’s proposal was written and has said including it in the budget – which requires support from a super majority in both chambers – would make it more difficult to pass.
Still, there is overwhelming support from Democrats in the House to approve a ban, so it seems likely that Shekarchi will allow some version of the legislation to move forward in the current legislative session.
The question is when.
The fear that gun safety advocates have is that Shekarchi will wait until the end of the legislative session to approve a bill, and there won’t be enough time to convince the Senate Judiciary Committee to support it.
The Senate Judiciary Committee appears to be evenly divided on an assault weapons ban, which means the committee could need ex officio members like Ruggerio, Majority Leader Val Lawson, and Majority Whip David Tikoian to vote just to get it out of committee. (If it makes it to the Senate floor, the consensus is that it will be approved.)
But here’s the catch.
With Ruggerio struggling with health issues, a sudden change in Senate leadership could throw a wrench into the Democrats’ plans. While Lawson supports the ban, it’s no secret that Senator Frank Ciccone is trying to piece together votes to succeed Ruggerio as president if a change happens this year.
Ciccone is a staunch gun rights supporter. In fact, for years, he was a private firearms dealer. The fear among gun safety advocates is that he would block an assault weapons ban if he became the president (and that might be his pitch to Republicans in order to secure the leadership post).
The smart money would still be to bet that some form of a ban is approved this year – when no one in the House or Senate has to face voters – but it’s far from a guarantee.
This story first appeared in Rhode Map, our free newsletter about Rhode Island that also contains information about local events, links to interesting stories, and more. If you’d like to receive it via email Monday through Friday, you can sign up here.
Dan McGowan can be reached at dan.mcgowan@globe.com. Follow him @danmcgowan.