This story originally appeared in the Globe’s Sunday Baseball Notes. Read the rest here.
If Kristian Campbell becomes simply an above-average player, the Red Sox will have a tremendous bargain after signing him for eight seasons and $60 million.
If he becomes an All-Star, Campbell will be seen as wildly underpaid.
But look at it from the point of view of a 22-year-old.
Campbell was not drafted out of high school and redshirted at Georgia Tech in 2022, deemed not ready to contribute to an ACC team. He had a terrific 2023 season but was only a fifth-round draft pick, 132nd overall.
The Sox liked him, but only to a point. They drafted two other shortstops — Nazzan Zanetello and Antonio Anderson — before selecting Campbell.
Less than 18 months later, Campbell was offered $60 million. He elected to secure his financial future and that of his family.
“Everything that’s happened is life-changing,” Campbell said.
Could he have made more by waiting? Maybe. But nothing is guaranteed. Look at Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela.
Bello signed for $55 million in spring training last season, then had an adjusted ERA of 96. That was 51st out of 58 qualified pitchers in the majors.
Rafaela signed for $50 million and had a .664 OPS, 117th out of 129 qualified hitters. He’s only 24, but has one of the worst chase percentages in the game.
It’s too early to say the Sox regret those deals. You can bet Bello and Rafaela don’t regret them in the slightest.
Had Campbell gone year to year, he would not have been eligible for arbitration until after the 2027 season. Under the terms of his contract, he’ll have made $8 million by then.
Campbell’s contract includes team options for 2033 ($19 million) and 2034 ($21 million).
He also could earn bonuses based on where he finishes in the Most Valuable Player voting. As much as $2 million for winning with $1 million for second or third, $500,000 for fourth or fifth, and $250,000 for sixth-10th.
As Campbell rises, Zanetello was ranked only 37th among the team’s prospects by SoxProspects.com. Anderson isn’t in their top 60.
A few other observations on the Red Sox:
⋅ It should not be a surprise that Rafael Devers had such a terrible start to the season.
He had only 15 plate appearances in five Grapefruit League games, then didn’t accompany the team to Mexico for the two exhibition games there.
Devers took live batting practice in spring training for the first time on Feb. 26 and didn’t get into an actual game until March 15. He played every other day through March 23.
He never played back-to-back days or played on the road, even 5 miles away against the Twins.
Yes, Devers took dozens of “live” at-bats on the practice fields against teammates or minor league pitchers, but that only goes so far in replicating the feel of playing in a spring training game against major league pitchers who are preparing for the season.
Devers could have insisted he play more Grapefruit League games and he didn’t. The Sox could have pressed him to play more often and they didn’t.
That’s what led to opening the season 0 for 21 with 15 strikeouts before he finally got a hit.
Both Devers and Alex Cora insisted he would be fine with the schedule the team came up with. Lesson learned.
It also didn’t make much sense to announce in April that Devers will not play third base this season.
Why decide so soon that you will limit your roster flexibility for the remainder of the season? Devers is no Adrian Beltré at third base, but he certainly could play there for a few days if Alex Bregman gets banged up.
It also would benefit Trevor Story physically to have an occasional game as the DH. Playing Devers at third and Bregman at shortstop would work for a handful of games over the course of the season.
Bregman played 65 games at shortstop for the Astros in 2019 and graded out as above average defensively.
⋅ Triston Casas has been moving better at first base this season. The coaches made an adjustment in his pre-pitch setup, having Casas stand more upright instead of hunching down like he had been doing.
The change has given him a quicker first step toward a batted ball.
Now, the Sox need to work on Casas’s decision-making on balls between the mound and first base.
⋅ Throughout spring training, Cora spoke about the need to turn double plays. The Sox had 117 last season — more than 11 other teams, but still below the league average of 123.
They were well-above the league average the previous three seasons.
That had a lot to do with Story missing most of the season and the Sox using 11 starting second basemen.
“We’ve got to be better,” Cora said last month.
The Sox had 14 in their first eight games as Story worked well with Campbell. Bregman started five from third base.
In the age of advanced statistics, some simple ones can be useful, too.
⋅ Masataka Yoshida is going to collect $18.6 million a year through 2027 no matter what happens, but he didn’t come to America to play catch.
Yoshida is throwing out to 110 feet and the Sox won’t be able to delay his minor league rehab assignment for much longer. That starts a 20-day window, after which they would have to put him back on the roster.
A backup lefthanded-hitting DH is not what the Sox need. Or another lefthanded hitter, period.
It may not be in Boston, but Yoshida can help somebody as a hitter. He has a .775 OPS over 248 major league games and that was playing injured much of last season.
At some point the Sox may have to admit defeat and pick up a big chunk of his remaining salary to trade Yoshida.
That also could happen with Story eventually, as Marcelo Mayer bangs on the door in Triple A.
Peter Abraham can be reached at peter.abraham@globe.com. Follow him on Bluesky at peteabeglobe.bsky.social.