Disruptions in student visa interviews and processing could lead to a drop of up to 40 percent in new international student college enrollment in the upcoming academic year, potentially resulting in nearly $7 billion in revenue loss for the country’s economy, according to projections released in a recent study.
The projections by NAFSA: Association of International Educators, a nonprofit serving international educators, and JB International, a company that produces research on higher education, also found visa backlogs could prevent 150,000 new students from getting the necessary documentation to travel to the United States in time for the fall semester. That could lead to a 15 percent drop in the overall international enrollment, the groups said.
In Massachusetts alone, the revenue loss could be up to $619 million, behind New York at $988 million and California at $1 billion.
The losses won’t just affect enrollment, but also major losses in terms of innovation and US competitiveness, Fanta Aw, the NAFSA chief executive, told the Globe, pointing to large companies like Google or Nvidia, which employ international workers.
“International students drive innovation, advance America’s global competitiveness, and create research and academic opportunities in our local colleges that will benefit our country for generations,” Aw said. “For the United States to succeed in the global economy, we must keep our doors open to students from around the world.”
The potential enrollment decline is attributed to changes in visa policy made by the Trump administration, including interview suspensions, limited appointment availability, and visa bans. The disruptions started in May when the Department of State halted visa interviews to introduce a new policy requiring consular officers to vet the “entire online presence” of any prospective international student while searching for “hostile attitudes” toward the United States.
Weeks away from the beginning of the academic year, the clock is ticking for international students to fill out necessary paperwork, have an interview at their local embassy or consulate, and receive a visa before traveling to the United States.
“It does seem like a guessing game as of right now of who’s going to be here once the semester starts,” said Angela Boatman, an associate professor at Boston College who studies the economics of higher education.
The uncertainty surrounding an expected drop in enrollment is affecting colleges’ ability to financial plan for the upcoming year, said Boatman, calling the projections “alarming.”
NAFSA and JB International analyzed data from the Department of State and the Student and Exchange Visitor Program, or SEVIS, and found student visa issuance was down 12 percent between January and April of this year. In May, it was down 22 percent compared with last year.
While June and July data are not yet available, NAFSA projects a decrease of 80 to 90 percent, based on the two months being the busiest for student visa issuances in previous years.
The groups’ nearly $7 billion of projected lost revenue includes tuition, housing, and other costs associated with attending college in the United States. The analysis also predicts a loss of 60,000 jobs nationwide.
Aw said the analysis “should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on US campuses this fall.”
As a policy solution, the organization urged the State Department to expedite visa appointments and exempt students from travel restrictions banning the entry of people from 19 countries, including Afghanistan, Myanmar, Haiti, Iran, and Venezuela. The Trump administration said it was placing the restrictions due to national security concerns.
International students have long been considered an asset in exposing American students to an interconnected world and global economy.
Many colleges across the country rely on these students to pay full tuition for significant portions of their revenue, though international students in a number of elite schools receive substantial aid. A recent Globe analysis of 100 universities with the highest number of foreign undergraduate students shows these institutions collectively provided them with more than $1 billion in scholarships and aid.
In Massachusetts, international students make up more than 17 percent of the state’s total college enrollment, the largest share of any state. At Northeastern University, for example, more than 15,000 of the university’s 23,700 students are international, according to its website.
Some economists fear the financial consequences of the decline of international students could be worse than the groups projected.
Tarek Hassan, an economics professor at Boston University, said the study focuses on local spending and doesn’t account for effects on total economic growth.
“Yes, [international students are] going to be spending less in Boston, but this is also going to reduce the long-term economic growth in Boston, and that lowers the incomes of the people who are already here,” Hassan said.
International students lead to highly skilled immigrants in the United States, Hassan said, which impacts the capacity of local economies to innovate and generate economic growth.
“We’re going to have fewer good ideas. And good ideas are fundamentally how we grow, and how our incomes grow over time,” he said.
The pause on visa interviews in May took place during the busiest time for student visa issuances — May to August — when students receive acceptance letters and make commitments to US colleges. The wait times for an interview appointment can take months in some countries. And even after a visa is approved, it can take weeks for students to receive them in the mail.
In a July letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, US Representative Stephen F. Lynch joined one Republican and more than a dozen Democratic members of Congress to urge the government to address visa appointment delays, stating Indian international students are struggling to obtain visas.
“We are dismayed at the possibility that many of these bright young individuals may be blocked — due to limited appointment availability and scheduling delays at the U.S. embassies in India — from continuing their education and research in the United States," the Congress members wrote.
Indian students represent the largest group of international students in the United States. In Massachusetts, the top two countries with the highest numbers of international students are China and India.
Since the Trump administration abruptly terminated visas from thousands of international students earlier this year, many are concerned about pursuing degrees in the United States. A May survey reported international students’ interest in the US as a destination for college has dropped to its lowest level since the pandemic, with students showing a preference for other English-speaking countries.
In Malaysia, for example, the government redirected 131 students away from the United States, sending them to countries they deemed more stable, including the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct the name of JB International.
Marcela Rodrigues can be reached at marcela.rodrigues@globe.com. Maria Probert can be reached at maria.probert@globe.com.