How long will the government shutdown continue? The Globe’s James Pindell has an answer.
But first, here’s what else is going on:
- Representative Seth Moulton of Salem will challenge Senator Ed Markey in next year’s Democratic primary. Moulton, 46, says he agrees with Markey, 79, on most issues but argues that “it’s time for a new generation of leadership.”
- President Trump threatened to “take away” World Cup games scheduled to be played near Boston next year, criticizing Mayor Michelle Wu’s response to recent so-called “street takeovers” in the area.
- Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman plans to opt out of his three-year, $120 million contract with the team and become a free agent this offseason.
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TODAY’S STARTING POINT
The latest government shutdown is in its third week, but it’s already different from the stop-and-start variety Washington has come to treat as a ritual. This one has the potential to stretch far longer — not because the issues are more complex, but because both parties have incentives to let this go down for a while.
Shutdowns usually end when the short term political costs outweigh the long-term ideological rewards. The 2013 impasse over the Affordable Care Act lasted 16 days. The record-breaking 2018–19 shutdown dragged on for 35 days. Those fights revolved around specific disputes — health care funding, a border wall. This one is about something broader: remaking the federal government on the one hand and remaking the Democratic Party on the other.
That distinction changes everything. The two parties are not negotiating over a line item; they are making long-term plays.
The long-term play for Republicans
For Republicans, the shutdown is a proving ground for a decades-old argument: that Washington does too much and costs too much. The longer the government stays closed, the easier it becomes to make that case.
If the Departments of Education, Commerce, or portions of the Environmental Protection Agency remain dark for weeks or months and daily life goes on largely unchanged, Republicans can point to the absence as evidence of excess. The message is simple: If you didn’t miss it, maybe you didn’t need it.
But wait, there’s more
There is a second layer to this logic. Each passing payday without a paycheck pressures federal workers to seek other jobs. Attrition becomes self-reinforcing; those who leave may never return. Hiring back thousands of workers can take years. When combined with the work of DOGE from the spring, the cumulative effect is exactly what small-government conservatives have sought for decades, a leaner federal bureaucracy, achieved not by legislation but by inertia.
That’s why the party’s incentive is endurance, not urgency. So long as the shutdown holds, Republicans can argue they’re witnessing their governing philosophy in action.
On Friday, Republicans basically proved these points, as Office of Management and Budget head Russell Vought announced the mass firings of federal government employees had begun. This came after House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, said that the House will not return this week to do any business.
The play for Democrats
Democrats are making a very different calculation, one that mixes policy with politics.
They would likely provide the votes to reopen the government immediately if some deal was offered that preserved Affordable Care Act premium subsidies. Without that, they have little to gain by compromise. If those subsidies lapse and insurance premiums rise — both on the ACA exchanges and in employer-based plans tied to the same risk pools — Democrats can plausibly argue that Republican management directly raised Americans’ health costs. It’s one of the few levers they have while in the minority, and they’re not inclined to release it.
But their strategy is also shaped by Johnson’s choice to close the House until enough Senate Democrats vote to end the shutdown. That stance has left his own chamber idle. Each day Congress remains closed is another day Republicans cannot advance legislation or message votes on immigration, spending, or cost-of-living increases, items that they promised to address in office.
Notably, while Republicans may hope that many federal workers will get fed up and find a different job, some tell the Globe the shutdown might be the only way to keep their jobs.
Democrats are in no hurry to break that impasse. Time, in this case, hurts the majority. The longer the shutdown lasts, the more the image of Republican control becomes one of dysfunction and drift.
How it ends
All shutdowns eventually end the same way, when the public runs out of patience. Polling shifts, markets react, air travel becomes unbearable, and stories of unpaid government workers and shuttered small businesses dominate the news. At that point, the ideological argument gives way to the political math.
But the path to that moment looks longer this time. Each side believes it is proving a point worth the pain. Republicans see validation that Washington can function with less of itself. Democrats see confirmation that Republican rule produces paralysis.
That symmetry, both parties finding meaning in stalemate, is what makes this shutdown uniquely durable.
The last one lasted 35 days. This one could easily go longer because both sides think their future depends on it.
More on the shutdown: Logan is one of several New England airports refusing to air a TSA video in which Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem blames any resulting travel delays on Democrats.
🧩 4 Down: Blanched | ☀️ 63° Sunny, breezy
POINTS OF INTEREST
Medical ethics: Growing vaccine skepticism is putting Massachusetts pediatricians in a bind: Should they drop unvaccinated families or risk jeopardizing the health of other patients in the waiting room?
ICE in Massachusetts: Everett police arrested a 13-year-old boy last week after receiving a tip about a threat against another student, the mayor said. They recovered a knife, contradicting a Trump official’s claims that the boy also had a gun. ICE then detained the boy and sent him to a Virginia detention facility. Supporters — including three of the boy’s seventh-grade classmates — protested his detention outside City Hall.
Transgender youth: Under pressure from the Trump administration, Fenway Health, a Boston clinic that specializes in LGBTQ+ care, will no longer offer hormones or puberty blockers to trans patients under 19.
‘Intent follows the bullet’: Someone who accidentally kills an innocent bystander while defending themselves can’t face first or second degree murder charges, Massachusetts’ highest court ruled.
Making headlines: A six-figure pay raise isn’t the only controversy surrounding Quincy Mayor Thomas Koch. He’s also gotten criticism for supporting statues of saints on a public building and for comments about the Catholic Church’s sex abuse scandal.
Maine politics: Janet Mills, Maine’s second-term Democratic governor, is challenging Susan Collins, the state’s longtime Republican US senator. Mills, 77, pledged to serve just one term. Dan Kleban, a political outsider also challenging Collins, dropped his bid and endorsed Mills. (WMTW)
Charlie Kirk: Trump posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor, to the slain conservative activist on what would have been Kirk’s 32nd birthday. His widow, Erika, accepted it. (AP)
Trump vs. higher ed: The administration has restored most of its canceled research grants to Harvard after a judge ruled the cuts illegal, the school said. And two Nobel economists at MIT, one of whom criticized Trump’s attacks on scientific research, are leaving for the University of Zurich.
Leaked: A Republican state senator in Vermont was part of a Young Republicans group chat that featured slurs, jokes about rape and putting their opponents in gas chambers, and one conservative who said “I love Hitler.” (Politico)
Free press: Most news outlets refused to agree to the Pentagon’s new press policy, which bars them from reporting information not expressly approved for release. One America News, a far-right channel, signed. Fox News, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s former employer, didn’t. (WashPost 🎁)
BESIDE THE POINT
By David Beard
🎤 Rest in power: D’Angelo, the Grammy-winning R&B singer who died at 51 after a cancer diagnosis, was both a musical trailblazer and a reluctant sex symbol, Globe critic Chris Vognar writes.
🍔 College sweethearts: You know you’re in love when you buy a diner together.
💌 Love Letters: 13 years later, she’s still trying to work things out with her boyfriend. It’s awkward.
🍖 Yum: Barbecue on Route 1? Yes, chef!
🚣♀️ See it! For a few years, I could just stroll a few blocks to see the Head of the Charles. Here’s your guide to the best spots.
🧂High-potassium salt? These simple steps can help prevent dementia. (WSJ 🎁)
🏃♀️Your turn: Do you have a crazy commute? Let us know!
Thanks for reading Starting Point.
This newsletter was edited by David Beard and Ian Prasad Philbrick.
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James Pindell is a Globe political reporter who reports and analyzes American politics, especially in New England.