Good morning. Mass shootings like the one that shattered Brown’s campus over the weekend are horrific tragedies. They’re also becoming less common.
But first, here’s what else is going on:
- Law enforcement officials hunting for the Brown University shooter released surveillance footage of a man wearing dark clothing and announced a $50,000 reward for information as anxiety over the pace of the investigation mounted. The two students the shooter killed were an Uzbekistani immigrant who dreamed of becoming a doctor and a sophomore from Alabama who helped lead the college Republicans club.
- Police arrested Nick Reiner, the 32-year-old son of Hollywood icon Rob Reiner who had struggled with addiction, on suspicion of stabbing his parents to death. And Republicans criticized President Trump for blaming Reiner’s death on his outspoken criticisms of the president.
- A jury in Norfolk Superior Court found Brian Walshe guilty of first-degree murder for killing his wife, Ana, before dismembering her and dumping her remains. He’ll face sentencing tomorrow.
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TODAY’S STARTING POINT
Gun violence is a disproportionately American problem. The US has the highest rate of firearm-related deaths of any wealthy nation. Mass shootings, like the one that killed two Brown students and injured nine more on Saturday, sometimes happen in other countries; over the weekend, gunmen killed 15 people on an Australian beach. But they’re far more common here.
The scope and horror of American gun violence can create the impression of an intractable problem. But that impression runs counter to the data, according to James Alan Fox, a criminologist at Northeastern University. In a hopeful sign that progress is possible, the number of mass shootings in the US — and the number of people they’ve killed — has fallen precipitously in recent years, he says.
On the downslope
Gun violence statistics can be fickle. Different criteria, like whether you count the number of people shot or the number killed, can produce very different pictures of the frequency of mass shootings. But however you slice it, such incidents are on the decline.
A database maintained by the Associated Press, USA Today, and Northeastern counts 14 shootings in the US this year that killed at least four people, excluding the shooter — a 53 percent drop compared to last year and a 64 percent decline since 2023. Those shootings claimed 59 lives this year, “lower than any time in the past 20 years,” said Fox, who manages the database.
The decline is impressive even if you expand your definition (Fox’s database doesn’t include the Brown shooting because fewer than four people died). The Gun Violence Archive, which tracks mass shootings that injure or kill at least four people other than the shooter, counts 392 so far this year, a 41 percent drop since 2023 and the fewest since 2018.
Luck and policy
What explains the decline? Crime numbers ebb and flow, sometimes for unclear reasons. Violent crime spiked during COVID, fueled by stress, people living in close proximity, and more unstructured time. That wave has since receded, and mass killings seem to have followed. “The larger the spike, the more likely it’s going to be followed by a downturn,” Fox said.
But policy changes meant to reduce gun violence are also having an effect. After the 2018 school shooting in Parkland, Fla., 17 states approved laws making it easier to confiscate weapons from people at risk of committing violence. Bipartisan legislation President Biden signed in 2022 earmarked billions for gun violence prevention and counseling. Nearly two-dozen states require schools to conduct threat assessments, which may deter would-be shooters.
We also know more about what works. A study Fox coauthored found that requiring people to get state-issued licenses, pass stringent background checks, and pay fees to buy guns — as Massachusetts does — correlated with significantly fewer mass shootings. First responders have gotten better at treating gunshot victims, experts say, helping to save lives.
Still a problem
Squaring the Brown shooting with the overall decline in mass killings requires holding two ideas at once: such incidents are tragic but rare. Since 1991, there have been 30 shootings on college campuses that killed two or more people, Fox said, collectively claiming far fewer students’ lives than suicides, overdoses, and drinking.
Fox is used to people twisting gun-violence statistics to fit their preferred narratives. In 2019, President Trump retweeted a link to a podcast in which Fox argued that there is no “epidemic” of mass shootings. “He must have thought that when I say it’s not an epidemic, that you don’t have to do anything about it,” Fox said. “But that’s not my point.”
Too much public attention on mass shootings, Fox argues, can stoke inordinate fear, lead to bad policy, or obscure the fact that the vast majority of the tens of thousands of annual US gun deaths are the result of one-off homicides or suicides. But apathy and defeatism can be problems, too. There’s no guarantee that mass shootings will continue to decline in 2026. But the recent drop suggests we really can save lives. “It doesn’t have to be an epidemic to be a problem,” Fox said.
More on the Brown shooting:
- Police described the man they initially detained as a “person of interest,” which experts called an effort to signal caution. But his release on Sunday set the campus back on edge.
- “I feel like my body is still on alert”: Students are starting their winter breaks while trying to process a tragedy.
- After the shooting, reporters for Brown’s main student newspaper quickly got to work covering how Providence locals were reacting — and their fellow students’ trauma.
🧩 1 Down: Eclipse shadow | ⛅ 34° Trending warmer
POINTS OF INTEREST
‘Perfect literary foils’: Larry Summers, Harvard’s former president, and Senator Elizabeth Warren, a former law professor there, have clashed for more than a decade. Newly released emails between Summers and the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein are reigniting their rivalry.
Justice delayed? A man convicted of murder decades ago pushed for modern DNA testing to clear his name but didn’t live to see it happen. Massachusetts’ highest court will soon decide whether to do the testing anyway. If the man is innocent, it could redeem his reputation and reveal clues about the real killer.
Grounded: Governor Maura Healey demanded that the Trump administration halt ICE detention flights from Hanscom Field near Boston after a human rights group revealed that immigration flights from that airport have more than doubled since last year.
Profit motive? Massachusetts lawmakers backing a bill that would weaken Massachusetts’ climate goals have received donations from energy companies, utilities, and industry lobbyists. Meanwhile, the state will investigate residents’ electricity and gas bills as utility companies hike rates.
Russia-Ukraine war: The US agreed to provide security guarantees to Ukraine — including a “multinational force” that would operate inside the country and secure its skies, European allies said — as part of a potential peace deal to end the fighting. (AP)
Dem vs. Dem: Massachusetts state Senator William Brownsberger and Representative Katherine Clark of Revere, Democrats’ No. 2 leader in the US House, are among the longtime incumbents who will face primary challenges next year. (Politico)
Pay to play? Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, withdrew from a Trump-branded real estate deal in Serbia after Serbian prosecutors charged four senior government officials there with corruption in connection with the project. Kushner’s private equity firm worked on the half-billion-dollar deal with two of Trump’s sons even as Serbia’s president sought favors from Trump. (NYT 🎁)
Australia beach attack: Officials called the mass shooting, which killed an 87-year-old Holocaust survivor, a child, and 13 other people during a Hanukkah celebration, a terrorist attack inspired by the Islamic State. (AP) In Greater Boston, the attack heightened the safety concerns that many Jews already feel.
Times change: iRobot, the Bedford business that became a symbol of New England ingenuity for its Roomba robotic vacuums, filed for bankruptcy and is being sold to a Chinese company.
Editor again: Brian McGrory, who was editor of the Globe for a decade, is rejoining the newsroom as its new editor. He’ll replace Nancy Barnes, the paper’s first female editor, who will remain as an editor-at-large.
BESIDE THE POINT
By David Beard
📺 ‘Meathead’: Before his move to “Spinal Tap” and “The Princess Bride,” Rob Reiner had a major impact on the small screen, Don Aucoin writes.
🪖 Personal history: A Jewish organization helped him escape Nazi Germany as a teen. Years later, as a US soldier, he made an improbable rescue.
💏 Not his wife: From ColdplayGate to Cardi B to Elizabeth Banks as Karen Read, these are the 20 biggest pop culture moments in Boston this year. Plus: The top 10 classical albums of 2025.
💊 Fighting anxiety: As stress rises, what’s helping more and more people survive grocery stores, medical offices, breakup chats, and other day-to-day hassles? These beta blockers.
🍽️ Fighting loneliness: These Brandeis students, watching so many colleagues eating alone with their phone, have created an app to get them to put the screens away to share a platonic meal with someone with similar interests.
📺 Ahead of his time: A sterling new ESPN documentary shows the world wasn’t ready for sublime, pioneering sports anchor Stuart Scott.
🖼️ Luke and Laura: Anthony Geary, one half of a “couple” that mesmerized “General Hospital” viewers in the 1970s and 1980s, has died. The Mormon-raised Geary, 78, played the character Luke Spencer for decades. (AP)
Thanks for reading Starting Point.
This newsletter was edited by David Beard.
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Ian Prasad Philbrick can be reached at ian.philbrick@globe.com.