Instant Analysis from the Patriots’ 38-10 win over the Dolphins:
⋅ It wasn’t quite a perfect day for the Patriots as they closed out the regular season. The Dolphins were feistier than expected and sent the Patriots into a mid-game lull that almost derailed the game. The Broncos also won Sunday, putting the No. 1 seed out of reach for the Patriots.
But the Patriots made one last statement on Sunday, and they sure look ready for the playoffs.
“It’s never a doubt in belief in what this team can do, and it works all three phases. We have a lot of belief in each other,” quarterback Drake Maye said. “I think we just stay playing like us. We’ve built this identity and play to it, and I think good things happen.”
The Patriots dominated the second half to earn a decisive win over their division rival. It was their third win in a row since the loss to the Bills, and second straight blowout. The Patriots have found a new identity on offense centered around their running backs. The defense is slowly returning to form with Milton Williams returning Sunday and Robert Spillane expected back for the playoffs.
And though they didn’t get the No. 1 seed, the Patriots have little reason to complain about the way the cards fell in Week 18.
The Patriots wrapped up the AFC’s No. 2 seed with a 14-3 record, a sentence that would have gotten you laughed out of a sports bar at the beginning of the season. Maye made his closing argument for MVP with another smart, efficient performance. And the Patriots got the best possible matchup in the first round of the playoffs — the banged-up Chargers, not the rival Bills or stingy Texans.
Coach Mike Vrabel isn’t letting his players get too comfortable, though.
“It means we are the second seed and we’re going to host the Chargers, and we start over,” he said. “The only wins that matter are going to be the ones that we can get moving forward.”
The Patriots finished their home schedule with a 6-3 record, and will be home for at least one playoff game. They’ll be home in the divisional round if they make it that far, too. And they wouldn’t have to face the No. 6-seeded Bills until the AFC Championship game.
A charmed regular season ended in charmed fashion for Patriots, who are playing as well as any team in the AFC right now.
⋅ As well as Maye has been playing in recent weeks, the Patriots’ running backs have been carrying the offense. Rhamondre Stevenson has had a remarkable turnaround, from fumbling the game away against the Steelers in Week 3 to the team’s top playmaker at the end of the season.
Stevenson had 131 rushing yards on just seven carries, two catches for 22 yards, and his first career three-touchdown game, giving him six touchdowns over the last three. It’s not just the touchdowns, or the 56-yard run in the first quarter, that make Stevenson special. It’s the 20-yard run on third-and-1 after breaking two tackles, and the 6-yard run on second-and-4. And it’s lining up at wide receiver, putting an impressive move on a linebacker, and catching a 15-yard touchdown.
TreVeyon Henderson also scored twice, giving him four multi-touchdown games this season, and rushed for 53 yards on 4.1 yards per carry.
The Patriots’ offense has had to find a new identity with receiver Mack Hollins out for four weeks and Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas in and out of the lineup. They have found their answer with their two-headed run game.
⋅ Hunter Henry is also emerging as the key weapon in the passing game. He finished with five catches for 56 yards, coming up with catches of 29 and 16 yards in the second half to jumpstart an offense that had been stuck in neutral.
Henry’s 768 yards this season set a career high and his seven touchdowns are his most since 2021 (nine). If you had to pick a team MVP other than Maye, Henry makes for a pretty solid choice.
⋅ Speaking of Maye and the MVP, he did nothing to dissuade voters on Sunday, completing 14 of 18 passes for 191 yards and a touchdown before getting pulled in the second half. Maye also had five scrambles for 41 yards and finished his eighth turnover-less game of the season. Maye finished with a 129.4 passer rating, his 13th game over 100, breaking Tom Brady’s franchise record. Add in 4,000-plus passing yards, 35 total touchdowns and a 14-3 record, and Maye has a resume that is tough to beat.
⋅ The Patriots had two significant off-field stories last week with Stefon Diggs and Christian Barmore accused of violence against women, but the NFL allowed both to play Sunday and neither seemed to be the subject of any discipline.
Diggs started the game and finished with three catches for 43 yards, finishing the season with 1,013 receiving yards and unlocking a $500,000 incentive. Barmore also started and had three tackles plus a key sack to move the Dolphins out of field goal range.
⋅ It was an up-and-down performance from the Patriots’ defense. They let rookie QB Quinn Ewers start 9 for 11 for 104 yards and an easy touchdown. And they gave up 10 points in the second quarter and allowed a third-and-17 conversion on a screen to the tight end. This against a Dolphins’ offense that sat most of its key starters.
But the game ended with plenty of positives. The Patriots created two takeaways. Their league-worst red zone defense finally made two stops, a turnover on downs and an interception. Milton Williams returned and had a key tackle for loss for minus-6 yards. The run defense that allowed 5.0 yards per carry from Weeks 10-17 clamped down and allowed 2.5 on Sunday.
The defense has to play better in the playoffs, but the return of Robert Spillane from an ankle injury should be a big boost.
⋅ The Patriots have been the best second-quarter team all year, but they melted down Sunday in a performance that was only salvaged at the end by rookie kicker Andy Borregales.
The Patriots cruised to a 14-0 start but suddenly fell apart. The defense allowed a 65-yard touchdown drive. The Patriots’ offense couldn’t pick up a fourth-and-1 when Henderson got stuffed by an unblocked defender. They committed untimely penalties. And the Patriots allowed their first blocked field goal of the season, on a 38-yard attempt by Borregales.
Borregales got his redemption, though, by nailing a 59-yard field goal at the buzzer to push the Patriots’ lead to 17-10. It bailed out Maye and the coaches, who curiously didn’t try to get the ball closer on the previous play.
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com.