Four decades ago, in the middle of a different war in the Persian Gulf, the rulers of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates started Emirates, an airline that would defy the odds and become one of the world’s largest and most profitable carriers.
Now, it and other airlines in the region are facing their biggest test since the COVID-19 pandemic. The war in Iran has forced these companies to cancel tens of thousands of flights, tearing up the travel plans of millions of people, many of them intending to continue on to other destinations. The big questions now are how well Emirates and other Persian Gulf airlines are managing the fallout and how long will it take them to recover.
Geography has been central to the success of the three big Persian Gulf airlines — Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways. Much of the world’s population lives within reasonable flying distance of the airlines’ home bases in Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, making them natural transit hubs for people traveling long distances.
The airlines have an especially tight grip on travel to and from Europe, according to Cirium. They carry about 1 in 3 people traveling from Europe to Asia and 1 in 2 people from Europe to Australia and other destinations in the Southern Pacific region. All told, 227 million people flew to, from or through the region last year, according to the International Air Transport Association.
But the war has paralyzed that traffic. More than 52,000 flights to and from the Middle East — more than half of all flights planned in the region — have been canceled since the war began on Feb. 28, according to Cirium. An estimated 6 million passengers have been affected.
The costs are adding up, too. Crews and planes for Middle Eastern carriers were displaced. And tourism to the region has effectively ground to a halt.
The financial toll could be substantial. The loss of tourist spending alone could range from $34 billion to $56 billion this year, depending on how long the war lasts and how much it scares off travelers, according to an analysis by the research firm Tourism Economics.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.