The redistricting war that convulsed national politics last year is down to two final major battlegrounds: Florida and Virginia. And with critical deadlines approaching in the next two weeks, neither is going quite according to the partisan plan.
In Virginia, Democrats are seeking to enact an aggressive gerrymander that would eliminate as many as four Republican-leaning districts. Tens of millions of dollars have poured into the state to fund campaigns for and against the referendum, the vast majority on the Democratic side.
Election Day for the referendum is April 21.
But voters in the blue-ish state seem lukewarm to the idea; only 52% of likely voters say they support the redistricting effort, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll. And early voting data is doing little to spell Democrats’ concerns. Turnout so far remains fairly high, but there are no clear conclusions or trends emerging from the early vote universe.
Florida Republicans are facing their own challenge, with a special redistricting session set to begin in the Legislature in roughly two weeks. The state was thought to be the capstone in a battle sparked by Republicans in Texas to create a midterm advantage through the rare process of redistricting in the middle of the decade, with some in the state looking to draw as many as five new seats.
But a recent poll from Emerson College found that 56% of voters in the deeply red state think redrawing the congressional maps before the midterms is a “bad idea.”
Concerns about the effort in Florida are quite different from those in Virginia. Some Republicans in the state fear newly drawn, aggressive maps could end up costing the state some Republican seats this year, with President Donald Trump facing sagging polling numbers and economic woes spreading. Democrats have also been celebrating victories in recent special elections, including flipping a state legislative district where Trump’s Mar-a-Largo resort is located.
“You could put incumbent members at risk,” Rep. Greg Steube, a Republican representing a Gulf Coast district, told Politico late last month.
The state also faces a high legal hurdle. In 2010, voters in Florida passed the Fair Districts amendments, which effectively ban partisan gerrymandering in the state. So embarking on a new redistricting session would require some other justification. Gov. Ron DeSantis is pointing to a looming decision from the Supreme Court on the fate of the Voting Rights Act, where the court is considering whether to strike down a key provision of the landmark civil rights law and limit the ability of lawmakers to use race as a factor in drawing voting maps.
But the court has not issued an opinion yet, and there is only one opinion day scheduled before the Florida redistricting special session is set to start.
On Monday, DeSantis indicated in a news conference that he planned to continue with the push to draw new maps, whether a decision from the Supreme Court comes in time for the special session or not.
“We know how that Supreme Court case is going to come out at this point -- I don’t think there’s much of a dispute about that,” DeSantis said. “So, us looking at our map, understanding the issues in that case and fixing it, I think that’s appropriate whether the decision comes before we do it, or after. And it will obviously come sometime between now and the end of June.”
But not everyone pushing Florida to redistrict is in a particular hurry. Some officials at the White House have told legislators in Florida to slow down, in part so that other Democratic states do not take retaliatory redistricting measures, according to a person familiar with the discussions. They also noted that Florida has a very late primary this year, Aug. 18, and the DeSantis administration has pushed back the filing deadline until mid-June.
Of course, the Supreme Court could still upend congressional maps well beyond Florida if the justices were to issue an opinion early in the term striking down a key portion of the Voting Rights Act.
But the longer they wait, the less opportunity other states will have to act, having already held primary elections this spring, leaving Florida and Virginia as the last remaining battlegrounds. For now.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.