Hi I’m Ken Mahan, Globe meteorologist and tracker of the budding weather-altering, jet stream disruptor coming our way.
But first, here’s what else is going on:
- Before the Cambridge shooting, police issued a warning about the suspect that cited “suicidal statements” and an image of him with an assault rifle. Here’s how the shooting unfolded.
- Former Celtic Jason Collins, the NBA’s first openly gay player, has died of a brain tumor. He was 47.
- The inflation spike shows how consumers are being hurt by Trump’s war. Among the steepest grocery increases: beef, tomatoes, and coffee. (WashPost)
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TODAY’S STARTING POINT
Super, historic, record-setting.
Those are just some of the words meteorologists are using to describe what is expected to develop across the Equatorial Pacific in the coming months.
Quick refresher: El Niño develops when winds weaken and sea surface temperatures surge across the Equatorial Pacific near South America — and this one may affect us bigtime.
Here are the four biggest things you need to know:
1. This could be one of the strongest El Niños on record
Nearly every major forecast model shows a significant El Niño developing by late 2026, with ocean temperatures potentially rising around 3 degrees Celsius above average. That would place this event among the strongest ever observed, rivaling the legendary 1877-78 El Niño.
Why does that matter? El Niño acts like a giant atmospheric heat engine. It tends to bring wetter conditions to the Southern US, leading to floods, while the northern tier often turns warmer and drier, increasing drought and wildfire risks out West.
2. New England may feel the effects by late summer
There’s usually a delay between El Niño forming and its impacts reaching New England. But by late summer and fall, we could see hotter, more humid weather settle in.
That may translate to more heat waves, sticky nights, and an increase in heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Coastal storms could also become more frequent later in the year as the jet stream grows more active.
3. Winter could turn warmer and wetter
Historically, strong El Niño winters favor milder temperatures across New England. That doesn’t eliminate snow, but it often means more mixed precipitation and rain events, especially near the coast.
At the same time, El Niño winters can still produce major nor’easters. Some of New England’s biggest storms have occurred during strong El Niño years.
4. Hurricane season may quiet down
Strong El Niño patterns typically increase wind shear over the Atlantic, making it harder for hurricanes to organize and strengthen.
That could lead to a slightly quieter-than-average Atlantic hurricane season overall, although, as always, it only takes one storm to make it memorable. After all, Hurricane Bob did make landfall in New England during an El Niño year (1991).
So, quieter hurricane seasons, maybe? Hey, you wanted a silver lining, right?
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Related: El Niño and New England’s summer weather outlook
Forecast: The weekend you’ve been waiting for is on the way
🧩 7 Across: Neighborhoods | 🌧️ 63° Light showers
POINTS OF INTEREST
Harvard and slavery: Harvard officials enslaved more than 1,600 people, new research reveals. Confirmed so far: 259 university leaders, faculty, staff, and board members enslaved people between the university’s founding and emancipation.
‘Maddening’: Licensing delays from global soccer’s governing body are threatening Massachusetts’ World Cup party plans.
Building a new model: How Breaktime’s Connor Schoen is tackling youth homelessness in Boston. Meanwhile, the city’s budget crunch is threatening 1,800 after-school jobs.
More SunChips? Delta cuts snack and beverage service on short flights.
Are you an ‘accidental’ landlord? Here’s what to know about having a rental in Massachusetts. Also, this Home of the Week dates back to 1658, sits on 15 acres in Wenham, and lists for $1.6 million.
FDA chief out: Did Marty Makary move too slowly on Trump’s drive for flavored e-cigarettes? Did he do enough to placate anti-abortion activists? Here are the details.
Budget busters: The price tag for Trump’s proposed space weaponry system has risen to $1.2 trillion. Meanwhile, survey work has begun for Trump’s controversial, unfunded Triumphal Arch.
Black bears: Yep, they’re wandering around small towns in Mass. this spring. Here’s what to do if you see one.
Forget touching grass: Cow cuddling is the new way to get grounded.
Putin’s war: He was missing part of his arm. Russia sent him into battle anyway. (WSJ)
BESIDE THE POINT
By David Beard
🍿 Summer ‘Odyssey’: From Spielberg to “Star Wars” to Spider-Man and to Greta Lee as an evil iPad, here are the movies you’ll watch this summer. Plus, Lainey Wilson, Chance the Rapper, and Trombone Shorty join the Boston Pops for their big July 4 bash.
🍕 Bargain eats: Hungry, but low on scratch? Here are 10 delicious meals in Boston for under $10.
🥘 New kid on the block: A new open-air market is set to open in Dorchester this summer. Here’s where.
💌 Patience? A Love Letters writer tells Meredith: “We’ve been together for five years. My boyfriend is happy to wait five more to get married.”
🎶 You can avoid AI music ... but can you avoid AI show fliers, merchandise, and venue decor?
⚕️ Cartoon: Our love/hate relationship with health patient portals.
🏆 Award season: What do you know? Starting Point has taken an Honorable Mention as Best Newsletter from the International News Media Association. Thanks to our 100,000-plus readers, and tell your friends to join us!
Thanks for reading Starting Point.
This newsletter was edited by David Beard and produced by Ryan Orlecki.
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Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.