Very few Massachusetts voters believe the state has become a better place to live over the last four years. In fact, most respondents in a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll said they believe it’s actually gotten worse.
That bleak outlook, however, does not have many clamoring for fresh faces.
With two weeks until Election Day, Governor Maura Healey appears primed to roll to reelection against her Republican challenger, Michael Minogue, among a group of Democratic incumbent statewide officials enjoying commanding leads over their Republican and lesser-known challengers, the poll found.
About 59 percent of the 500 likely general election voters surveyed said they would back Healey for a second term, while 36 percent planned to vote for Minogue, the former Abiomed executive who has cast the state as too expensive and insufficiently governed. Less than 4 percent of voters remained undecided — including some who were surveyed after two debates between the candidates — suggesting Minogue has little opportunity to woo disaffected voters.
One might think, given voter unhappiness, that Minogue could have more potential converts. While more than half of respondents said they believed Massachusetts was headed in the right direction, only 15 percent said the state has become a better place to live over the last four years.
By comparison, about 42 percent — a plurality — said they believed the state had gotten worse to some degree. Another 40 percent said they believed it has remained the same.
Still, the survey’s results emphasized that Massachusetts voters’ enduring distaste for President Trump supersedes more parochial concerns. Nearly three in four voters surveyed said they had an unfavorable view of Trump, whose wide-scale immigrant deportation campaign and sweeping tariff policies have regularly played into Healey’s campaign strategy of insisting the president is “on the ballot.”
Healey has sought to tie Minogue to Trump, highlighting her rival’s donation of hundreds of thousands of dollars to Trump’s second campaign. More than 60 percent of voters said a Republican candidate with a history of voting for or supporting Trump would either make it less likely to support or entirely disqualify a candidate in their view, the poll found.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said much of Minogue’s campaign message was “validated in this poll.” Specifically, many voters seemed to agree with his position on taxes (55 percent said they’re too high) and the state economy (58 percent described it as fair or poor).
But Minogue, he said, didn’t correctly calculate “how toxic his proximity to President Trump would be.”
“That was an expensive mistake because Trump’s favorability is so low that anyone remotely associated with or supportive of him . . . is going to be impacted,” Paleologos said. “Minogue’s got the right messages, but he’s the wrong messenger at the wrong time.”
Voters appear to hold the federal government as responsible for Massachusetts’ fiscal outlook as the state’s chief executive. About 33 percent of voters said they felt Trump was most responsible for Massachusetts’ economy, compared with 34 percent who felt that responsibility lay with Healey.
Brian Julin, a 55-year-old Democrat from South Hadley, is one of the 42 percent of voters who believe the quality of life in Massachusetts has declined over the last four years. But he attributes much of that to changes launched by the Trump administration. Healey, he said, has “been doing a decent job, given the conditions that she has to work under.”
“Higher [education] is an export industry the size of soybeans, and we’re losing a lot of our actual export capability because foreign students are not coming here as much,” Julin, who works at a local university, said of why he believes Massachusetts has gotten “a little worse.” He added: “I’m not going to say it’s entirely the federal government’s fault, but it’s mostly the feds’ fault.”
Elizabeth Michaud, a professional astrologer from Salisbury, said that while the “cost of everything is unbelievable” in Massachusetts, she believes the Trump administration has worsened affordability issues. Michaud was particularly alarmed by Trump’s approach to artificial intelligence and its potential to replace jobs — including her own, because “people are talking to it like it’s their counselor.”
“I just want to vote for people who are against Trump,” said Michaud, a 48-year-old unenrolled voter who is backing Healey.
Still, even some Healey backers raised concerns about how the governor has tackled some of the state’s most pressing problems — namely, affordability.
Daniel Leahey, a 70-year-old Democrat from Newbury, said he believes Healey has generally done “a good job,” though he has critiques of how she’s addressed some issues from housing to state spending.
“She’s a true politician, so I don’t feel like she’s taking enough bold initiatives because she doesn’t want to offend people in the party,” said Leahey, who said he wants more transparency from Massachusetts’ government.
That said, “I certainly couldn’t vote for the opponent,” he added. “The fact that [Minogue] supports Donald Trump, that’s a nonstarter for me.”
Healey and other Democrats in Massachusetts have repeatedly tied rising costs and poor economic forecasts to the Trump administration’s tariff policies and ongoing war in the Middle East. Minogue, meanwhile, has tried to pin cost-of-living concerns on Healey, arguing that he would rely on his business acumen to run the state more effectively.
Utility costs and heating bills, which have dominated the gubernatorial race discourse, were the most common source of financial stress for voters.
“Anything’s gotta beat Maura Healey,” said Angela Goodney, a 57-year-old Republican from Millbury who plans to support Minogue. She added that she’s “hopeful but skeptical” of his odds, saying it “seems like everybody always votes Democrat in this state.”
Name recognition continues to bedevil Minogue, even after he spent more than $6.1 million last month alone, including on near-constant ads. About 21 percent of those polled said they had never heard of him. Of those who did, about 28 percent viewed him favorably, compared with 33 percent who viewed him unfavorably.
For Healey, meanwhile, 56 percent of voters said they viewed her favorably while 34 percent said they had an unfavorable view of her.
Healey isn’t the only Democrat who appears heading toward reelection. About 60 percent of poll respondents said they would support incumbent Senator Ed Markey, putting him nearly 30 percentage points ahead of John Deaton, a Republican and personal injury attorney.
Nearly 45 percent of respondents said they had never heard of Deaton, despite his running for Senate for the second time in as many election cycles as a Republican who says he’s never supported Trump.
Some other notable results include:
- More than 54 percent of Massachusetts voters said they also favor Attorney General Andrea Campbell over Republican challenger Michael Walsh, who received 28 percent of support.
- About 67 percent of those surveyed plan to reelect the state’s top elections official, Secretary of State William F. Galvin, over Republican Anne Brensley, and give Galvin a record ninth four-year term in office.
- State Treasurer Deborah Goldberg received backing from 58 percent of respondents, putting her far ahead of her Republican opponent, Elizabeth Dionne (24 percent).
- And 62 percent of voters plan to vote for state Auditor Diana DiZioglio over Al Ozonoff, a Libertarian.
The Suffolk/Globe poll was conducted over five days, from Wednesday to Sunday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Live callers reached respondents by mobile and landline phones.
Anjali Huynh can be reached at anjali.huynh@globe.com.